Jumaat, 1 Julai 2011

The Star Online: World Updates

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The Star Online: World Updates


Technical problem delays Ariane rocket launch

Posted: 01 Jul 2011 07:50 PM PDT

Technical problem delays Ariane rocket launch

CAYENNE, French Guiana (Reuters) - A technical problem has delayed the scheduled launch of an Ariane rocket carrying two satellites on Friday, the Arianespace rocket launch company said.

"During final countdown there was an open valve status report for the liquid hydrogen engine," Jean-Yves Le Gall, Arianespace president, said from the European Space Agency's launch centre in Kourou, French Guiana on the northeast coast of South America.

Le Gall said a new launch date would be announced as soon a possible.

Aboard the rocket was the Astra 1N satellite for Luxembourg-based telecoms operator SES ASTRA and BSAT-3c/JCSAT-110R for Japan's B-SAT Corp and partner SKYPerfect JSAT Corp. Both satellites were manufactured for direct broadcast television.

(Reporting by Franck Leconte in French Guiana and Alexander Miles (33 6 72-09-28-70)

Copyright © 2011 Reuters

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Chavez allies insist he's still running Venezuela

Posted: 01 Jul 2011 07:50 PM PDT

CARACAS (Reuters) - Allies of Venezuela's convalescent President Hugo Chavez insisted on Friday he was still running the OPEC nation despite his prolonged stay in Cuba for the removal of a cancerous tumor.

Supporters of Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez, write on a banner in support of him, as they attend a demonstration in Caracas July 1, 2011. (REUTERS/Gil Montano)

Army chief General Henry Rangel Silva and ministers moved quickly to head off speculation about any power vacuum or political infighting after Chavez, 56, revealed late on Thursday he was still receiving treatment after the operation.

In a separate phone call to state television late on Friday, the charismatic, authoritarian Chavez gave few further details about his condition but said he was "in frank recovery."

"I'm eating well, I'm well looked after and in good spirits," he said, repeating the account he gave on Thursday of the discovery and removal of a cancerous tumor in Cuba after an initial operation to excise a pelvic abscess.

Chavez thanked his friend and mentor, former Cuban President Fidel Castro, for persuading him to undergo the checks that found the more serious tumor.

"If it hadn't been for Fidel, who knows what labyrinth I would have found myself in today," Chavez said, adding there were "no complications" from the second operation.

Clearly anxious to demonstrate he was still running Venezuela during his recovery in Cuba, Chavez reeled off energy and infrastructure projects he was monitoring and said he had summoned several ministers, including Energy Minister Rafael Ramirez, to join him for consultations in Havana on Saturday.

He did not say when he would be back from Cuba, nor specify the treatment he is receiving, which has led to rumors the malignant cells may have spread, requiring chemotherapy.

Local media has said Chavez could have prostate cancer.

One source close to the Venezuelan medical team following Chavez's recovery said the diagnosis had revealed a cancer that required aggressive treatment that could take several months.

A wing of the Caracas Military Hospital was being prepared to receive him when he returns, the source said.

No official updates on Chavez's medical condition have been released excepts his own accounts on Thursday and Friday.

"CHAVEZ IN CHARGE"

The absence of the socialist leader -- who has dominated Venezuelan politics since 1999 and projected his leftist views across Latin America and the world -- have raised doubts about his ability to campaign for a presidential election in 2012.

It was also a humbling admission of mortality from a normally supremely confident politician with a string of polls wins who has often taunted foes he will stay in power to 2021.

With doubts swirling over how long his recovery could take and opponents questioning how Venezuela should be ruled in his absence, Venezuelan Vice President Elias Jaua insisted Chavez was in "full exercise of authority" from Cuba.

"Let no one have any doubts -- it's Chavez who's in charge here," echoed Ramirez, the energy minister.

While wishing the president a fast recovery, the opposition accused the government of lying about his condition.

They also argued that under the constitution, he should delegate powers in the case of prolonged illness or absence.

"We don't know when the president is returning ... There could be a flood of demands (arguing this) in the courts," said Ramon Aveledo, leader of the Democratic Unity opposition bloc.

General Rangel Silva said the military, a pillar of support for Chavez's government, would guarantee constitutional order during his absence.

The president, he said, would be home soon. "He is getting better, he's fine," Rangel told state TV.

Chavez, one of the world's fiercest critics of Washington, confirmed postponement of a regional summit scheduled for July 5 in Venezuela on the 200th anniversary of its independence.

Markets have generally reacted positively to news of Chavez's health problems, on the presumption they improve the chances of a more business-friendly government taking over.

Venezuela's benchmark 2027 bond jumped 4.7 percent initially on Friday to bid at 78.000 before retreating to close the day at 76.250 with a yield of 12.746 percent.

"Political vacuums are rarely to be encouraged but this one could lead to a slowdown in public spending and could raise the likelihood of an opposition victory in the next elections and thus a less confrontational governing style," said Richard Segal, an emerging markets analyst at Jefferies in London.

(Additional reporting by Mario Naranjo, Pascal Fletcher, Daniel Wallis, Deisy Buitrago, Diego Ore, Eyanir Chinea and Girish Gupta in Caracas, Jeff Franks in Havana, Andrew Quinn in Washington and Carolyn Cohn in London)

Copyright © 2011 Reuters

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Strauss-Kahn released from house arrest

Posted: 01 Jul 2011 07:20 PM PDT

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Former IMF chief Dominique Strauss-Kahn was released from house arrest on Friday after prosecutors said the hotel maid who accuses him of attempted rape lied to a grand jury and made other false statements.

Former IMF chief Dominique Strauss-Kahn (2nd L) smiles as he and his wife Anne Sinclair depart a hearing at the New York State Supreme Courthouse in New York July 1, 2011. (REUTERS/Brendan McDermid)

Strauss-Kahn, 62, still faces charges that he sexually assaulted the woman in New York but questions about her credibility appear to be shifting the case in his favor in a twist that could upend French politics.

He smiled as he left the courtroom with his wife, Anne Sinclair, at his side.

Until his May 14 arrest, Strauss-Kahn had been a steward of the global economy and a leading contender in the 2012 French presidential elections. Jubilant supporters in the French Socialist party hoped he might rejoin the presidential race but some analysts saw him as too tarnished.

Amid the scandal, he was forced to resign as head of the International Monetary Fund on May 19. Christine Lagarde, who just stepped down as French finance minister, takes over the top IMF job on Tuesday.

Enjoying his first taste of freedom since being pulled off a Paris-bound jetliner hours after the purported attack, Strauss-Kahn emerged from the townhouse where he had been under house arrest on Friday evening and was driven with his wife and another couple to Scalinatella, a pricey Italian restaurant on Manhattan's Upper East Side.

Strauss-Kahn's lawyers want the charges dropped.

"We are absolutely convinced that while today is a first giant step in the right direction, the next step will lead to a complete dismissal of the charges," his lawyer, Benjamin Brafman, said.

The judge said prosecutors will reexamine the evidence after they revealed the housekeeper lied to a grand jury about her actions after the alleged attack and on tax and immigration documents.

The woman initially said that after Strauss-Kahn assaulted her, she had cowered in the hallway outside his room until he left and she felt safe to seek help. Now, prosecutors say, she admits she cleaned a nearby room and then returned to start cleaning Strauss-Kahn's suite before reporting the incident.

As Justice Michael Obus released Strauss-Kahn, he told the court: "I understand that the circumstances of this case have changed substantially and I agree the risk that he would not be here has receded quite a bit.

"There will be no rush to judgment. The people will continue to investigate and reexamine the matter as appropriate."

Strauss-Kahn, whose house arrest had included electronic monitoring and an armed guard, agreed to return to court as needed, including for a July 18 hearing.

His bail payment of $1 million and bond of $5 million were returned to him but his passport was not.

QUESTIONS EMERGE

The case has hinged on the accuser, a 32-year-old Guinean immigrant who cleaned the $3,000-a-night suite at the Sofitel hotel in Manhattan where Strauss-Kahn was staying.

Prosecutors found issues with her asylum application, tax return and statements to the grand jury investigating the assault case, court documents showed.

Prosecutor Joan Illuzzi-Orbon told the court "the facts of the sexual encounter was and is corroborated" but some details appear to have changed.

The woman's brother told Reuters in Guinea that she was the victim of a smear campaign.

Her lawyer, Kenneth Thompson, said after the hearing his client's story had never wavered and that Strauss-Kahn had bruised her badly and tore a ligament in her shoulder.

"The claim that this was consensual is a lie," Thompson told reporters. "She made some mistakes but that doesn't mean she is not a rape victim."

The New York Times said forensic evidence did show there had been a sexual encounter between Strauss-Kahn and the maid but it also quoted law enforcement officials as saying prosecutors had found possible links between the accuser and people involved in drug dealing and money laundering.

They also discovered the woman made a phone call to a jailed man within a day of her encounter with Strauss-Kahn in which she discussed the possible benefits of pursuing the charges against him, the paper said.

The conversation was recorded. The man was among a number of people who had made multiple cash deposits, totalling around $100,000, into the woman's bank account over the last two years, The New York Times said.

Some commentators suggested that Strauss-Kahn, known as the "great seducer" of French politics, could have been set up.

His arrest opened the field for several other Socialist candidates for next April's presidential election, including party leader Martine Aubry, who trails colleague Francois Hollande in opinion polls.

Sarkozy, who nominated Strauss-Kahn for the IMF job, has not commented on the affair since his arrest. The case has prompted debate in France on gender equality and a media tradition of respecting the privacy of politicians' sex lives.

Nina Mitz, a former senior adviser to Strauss-Kahn at the French Ministry of Finance, said: "Today's stunning news can only make us regret that so much talent may have been wasted at a time when we all very much needed it."

(Additional reporting by Allison Joyce, Grant McCool, Christine Kearney, Paula Rogo and Bernd Debussmann Jr in New York, Mark Hosenball in Washington, Marie Maitre, Catherine Bremer and Geert De Clercq in Paris and Saliou Samb in Guinea; Writing by Mark Egan; Editing by John O'Callaghan and Sandra Maler)

Copyright © 2011 Reuters

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The Star Online: Business

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What’s next for the market?

Posted: 01 Jul 2011 07:01 PM PDT

IT'S one thing to worry about all the noise over the economic developments that envelop global markets and quite another to predict how investors will react to them. But there is one overriding common theme caution.

There are many reasons for such apprehension. The year started with the Arab revolution, which led to the political upheaval in many countries in the Middle East and North Africa. Then there were the earthquake and tsunami in Japan that wreaked havoc on the northeastern coast of the country and had repercussions elsewhere given the deep linkages Japanese industries have in the global supply chain.

If they were not enough to ignite worry among investors, the ongoing debt problems in Europe seems to be frothing over as Greece was on the verge of a massive default that would have caused a severe contagion in lenders from Germany and France, two of the EU's largest economies.

In addition, the economic malaise in US persists. At best, the economic indicators are still patchy to suggest that the United States has truly broken away from the gravity of its financial crisis. To infuse more momentum into the US economy, given fears of deflation, the US Federal Reserve embarked on a second round of printing money, called Quantitative Easing 2 (QE2) to the tune of US$600bil. While the move has injected money into the system and helped lift Wall Street, it really has done little for Main Street.

As a consequence of liquidity and growth rates rebounding in emerging markets, commodity prices have surged, lifting inflation and causing another headache for central bankers, governments and consumers world over given the rising cost of living.

The pain is not spread out evenly across all markets.

The FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI this week hit a new record high at 1,582.94 on Friday, the third consecutive day it breach record levels. Maybe it reflected the relief over the austerity measures in Greece's bailout plan which were passed amidst tough internal resistance. This lends credence to the long-held belief that when things get tough globally, foreign investors began to appreciate Malaysia's defensive qualities.

With the close of the first half of 2011, pundits are now poring over how the markets will fare in the second half. Given the volatility of markets and the unpredictability of ensuing events, most of them are likely to adopt cautious projections.

Global Fund Manager Survey

One guide to what people who manage money are thinking about is the Bank of America Merrill Lynch fund manager global survey. The latest published survey, which was conducted from June 3-9 on 282 people who managed US$828bil of assets under management, is pointing to money managers favouring less risk.

The survey's risk and liquidity indicator fell to 38, which is below the long-run average of 40 for the first time in nine months.

"The indicator had been relatively resilient so far despite growth concerns," says the report.

"Equities and commodities weights have been cut with gains for cash and bonds with most of the asset classes very close to their long-run averages."

The survey discovered that growth and profit expectations stabilised after recent sharp falls as inflation expectations fell dramatically in June from a couple of months ago.

The fund managers felt the global macroeconomic backdrop was not weak enough to warrant more stimulus as three quarters of its panellists thought a recession was unlikely and only 13% expect a new round of QE in the second half.

Despite concerns permeating investment decisions, emerging markets remain the favoured destination among those surveyed.

Although the numbers have slipped from May where 29% of fund managers polled were overweight on emerging markets, the survey revealed that 23% were positive of the prospects of emerging markets in June.

"The cut in emerging market positions comes amid a broad-based rotation towards defensive assets: Global equity allocations are reduced and the average cash level has risen from 3.9% to 4.2%," says the report.

Investors were favouring markets with domestic demand drivers and as global economic growth is forecast to drop a tad, investors trimmed their positions in cyclical stocks.

Among the most favoured emerging markets are Russia, Indonesia and China.

One painful finding of the survey is this among the emerging markets, Malaysia was the least favoured. But not all equity research houses may concur with that. Goldman Sachs, for one, has an overweight call on Malaysia and given the relative size of the Malaysian market, a handful of such calls would be enough to provide an oomph.

Defying that painful notion further is the fact that Bursa Malaysia hit an all-time high this week. Furthermore, the trading patterns in April and May show that foreign institutional investors were net buyers of Malaysian equities, quite the reverse from their net selling position earlier in February and March. As for domestic institutional investors, the trend was the opposite they were net sellers in April and May but net buyers over the previous two months.

Trading value which stood at RM52bil in January this year is trending downwards towards May which was the lowest for the year at RM31.2bil. Trading volume has also been falling on a monthly basis since January from 39.5 billion units to 18.4 billion units in May.

Largely, local retailers were net sellers for most of the year, only buying more shares than they sold in February.

Crystal ball gazing

What's next for Bursa Malaysia? Given that the exchange is at record levels, pessimism and optimism seem to be locked in a tug-of-war.

MIDF Amanah Investment Bank Bhd senior vice-president and head of research Zulkifli Hamzah says the first half performance was surprisingly resilient which largely bucked the regional trend.

"On closer observation, we would attribute the resilience of the market to foreign buying," he tells StarBizWeek.

"Foreign investors were net buyers on Bursa Malaysia in 10 of the 13 weeks between March 21 and June 19. We will not be surprised if foreign shareholding on Bursa Malaysia is higher than 22% now, as an estimated RM4.6bil of foreign money had been ploughed into local equity during that period."

Zulkifli opines that the foreign money flowing into Malaysia involves genuine portfolio funds instead of speculative money seeking quick returns.

"The upgrade of Malaysia's country status from Emerging to Advanced Emerging market by FTSE effective June partly explain the inflow of foreign money, but more importantly, we believe Malaysia is back on the radar screen of many global funds. This augurs well for the market in the second half," he says.

TA Securities head of research Kaladher Govindan says many of the worries investors had in the first half appear to be winding down and sentiment wise, the second half should be better.

He feels the concerted effort by the EU to tackle the debt crisis in Europe and Japan picking itself out of a recession should help improve market sentiment and anticipates the second half of the year to be a recovery period after a long consolidation period.

"Slower than expected growth in the United States and lingering sovereign debt issues in the US and Europe respectively are expected to drive back funds flow into emerging markets, which will benefit FBM KLCI," he says.

Zulkifli is maintaining his year end FBM KLCI target of 1,650 points but expects more volatility in the second half.

"The second half is generally wrought with downside surprises, and is also associated with major market corrections. We do not expect the perception to be any different this year," he says.

Earnings season will be the focus in August and he feels the numbers for the second quarter is expected to remain bad for airlines, shipping, resource-based industries such as gloves, steel and semiconductor.

"If there are any silver linings at all, we expect Malaysia and other resource-rich countries in this region such as Indonesia and Thailand to benefit from the switch out of China and the Asian tigers," he says.

"China is engineering a slowdown at a scale not seen by an economic super-power. The statutory reserve ratio for its banks is now at a disconcerting 21.5%. More banks will feel the squeeze."

Citigroup in its note on Malaysia says the upcoming earnings season in August will likely not excite the market.

"The conclusion of the latest results season confirms our view that overall business sentiment appears to have turned cautious as inflationary threat looms with economic activities on low gear," it says.

Citigroup feels inflation pressure for food and building materials, together with monetary tightening and higher inflation expectations from the electricity price hike could be negative in disposable income and business profitability. It is positive on chemical and consumer stocks and recommends investors take defensive positions in utilities and gaming.

Sectors to watch out for going forward are the oil and gas, plantation and banking, which recorded higher year-on-year earnings growth during the recent quarterly reporting season.

"We expect their positive earnings momentum to continue into the second half of this year," he says.

His choice of oil and gas stocks is due to higher oil prices which will not only benefit oil majors but also fabricators as well as support service providers as it encourages further upstream and downstream activities.

"Despite the recent sell down, we expect CPO price to remain firm as the global demand for vegetable oils is rather inelastic," he says.

He thinks earnings growth for banks will be underpinned by healthy loan growth, enhanced fee-based income, lesser provision with improved asset qualities and the rising overnight policy rate (OPR) which cushioned the pressure on margin.

Apart from these sectors, Kaladher is also overweight on construction.

"Players in the domestic-oriented sectors will do well on the back a stronger ringgit and weaker dollar," he says.

Inflationary environment bodes well for property sector as well as investors switch from holding cash to real estates."

Exporters that rely heavily on dollar based sales like those in the electrical and electronics segment will be hit and Kaladher says it will be a double whammy for manufacturers, for instance glove producers, who do not have a natural hedge due to high local cost content.

Economic Transformation Programme

Analysts have said the economy will also be a key determinant on how stocks will react in the second half of the year.

ECM Libra Investment Bank Bhd research head Bernard Ching says that with stock valuations for Malaysian equities more expensive than regional peers, analysts will be keeping an eye out on how the economy performs not only for the next six months.

"We are really looking at 2012," he says.

Economists have in recent weeks downgraded growth projections for Malaysia for 2011 as some have cut their estimates to the lower end of the Government's growth projection of 5% to 6%.

Merrill Lynch (Singapore) Pte Ltd economist Chua Hak Bin feels with the second quarter probably growing by between 4% and 4.5% as global growth slows, the external environment and the sluggish performance of Malaysia's exports would make things tough for the country.

"Achieving 5% is a stretch given the global soft patch. Exports are not going to help," he says.

One area that might, and the Government and analysts are looking at, compensate for the slower external growth is the economic transformation programme (ETP).

Credit Suisse analyst Stephen Hagger feels the ETP will succeed where others have failed due to its structure, which is private sector driven.

"We believe Malaysia is entering a super cycle' of investment and growth that could result in 6% to 7% per annum. GDP growth for three years, due to the ETP, investment from Singapore, looming general election and cash flow from commodities notably palm oil and rubber," he says in a note.

Kaladher says the ETP and other transformational programmes undertaken by the Government would offer protection for the stock market in the second half.

"In a way the market has shown resilience in the last six months when most regional indices tumbled towards their March low," he says.

"The Government's ETP commitment provides some sort of visibility for domestic projects that are expected to cushion the external slowdown."

In a report on June 13, Credit Suisse says 50% of the ETP projects have taken off. The cumulative ETP-related investments total RM170.3bil.

Zulkifli too agrees on the influence of the ETP and the Government Transformation Programme (GTP), saying those programmes were already in the process of taking the country to the next level.

"Despite all the challenges, the government has managed to institute pro-active programmes to move the country forward, and it is now a matter of execution," he says.

Apart from the ETP acting as a buffer for sentiment, there are other factors that can act as stabilisers for the stock market in the second half.

"The weightage of banking stocks on the KLCI alone is about 34%, and Malaysian banks are among the best capitalised in the region. Add that by another 16% weightage on plantation stocks and 7% on power stocks, one will get a better appreciation of the defensive nature of the FBM KLCI," says Zulkifli.

"But from a global perspective, the strongest protection accorded to the FBM KLCI is probably the strength of the ringgit, which we expect to hit RM2.95 to US$1 sometime in the second half. The fundamentals of the ringgit are stronger than that for the US dollar, and that is important for the dollar carry trade."

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A highly improbable deal

Posted: 01 Jul 2011 06:41 PM PDT

IT'S all about price really. If indeed there is a proposal to buy CIMB Group Holdings Bhd by RHB Capital Bhd RHB Cap has just about denied that it has any such intentions then it has to pay the right price to get enough acceptances.

But at that kind of right price, it may take a while before additional value can be created over and above RHB Cap and CIMB on a standalone basis, if it is likely that can be done in the first place at all.

Also, give a thought to what will happen to RHB Cap's share price if it undertakes gobbling up a banking group three times its size at a much higher relative valuation compared to its own valuation, both in terms of price-to-book value and price to net earnings.

Without a doubt, RHB Cap's earnings on a per share basis will take a tumble for the worse while its price-to-book value will rise making it less attractive to potential investors.

Add in a price discount for uncertainty over whether the acquisition will work, and you have a recipe for disaster, at least as far as short-term price is concerned. That throws a massive spanner into the works because shareholders won't be very interested in subscribing for new shares when the price outlook is poor.

The Employees Provident Fund or EPF, the largest single shareholder of RHB Cap with a 45% stake will not be able to explain to its millions of members why it chose to subscribe to a rights issue or agreed to take up the rights shares that other shareholders did not want.

At this stage, it is most probable that there is a merger proposal out there which calls for RHB Cap to make a bid for all of CIMB via a cash offer or a combination of cash and shares at 2.65 times its book value. Strangely RHB Cap itself appears unaware of the deal.

Nevertheless it is speculated that such a proposal has been floated to effect a merger between RHB Cap and CIMB. CIMB and Malayan Banking had earlier announced that they are not proceeding with a takeover of RHB Cap because the benchmark price had got too expensive.

As the two banks were contemplating a possible takeover, RHB Cap's other major shareholder Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank (ADCB) announced last month that it was selling its stake to sister company Aabar Investments PJS for RM10.80 per share or RM5.9bil. That works out to 2.25 times book value, a figure neither CIMB nor Malayan Banking were willing to pay for RHB Cap.

RHB Cap's share price fell below RM9 after the two banks walked away from any potential takeover of the banking group when they considered the reference price of RM10.80 per share, which valued the whole of RHB Cap at RM23.6bil, too rich.

Now the latest proposal, intentionally or otherwise, has created another merger buzz but try as you might, it is difficult to see how the deal can be done. CIMB's market value now is around RM66bil. A deal to have a good chance for CIMB's demanding shareholders to accept will have to give a good premium over market value.

Put that premium at 20%, and you will have a takeover value of almost RM80bil for CIMB and an acquisition price-to-book value of three times. With that kind of figures, the new RHB Cap's earnings per share is likely to be significantly diluted.

RHB Cap, under that elusive proposal, is likely to depend on its major shareholders EPF and Aabar to raise the cash in exchange for additional shares in RHB Cap but for both of them, it is unlikely that such a situation is tenable when the market is likely to downgrade RHB Cap and for the share price to fall.

EPF will be hard put to explain to its nearly 13 million members, who include most of Malaysia's workforce, why there is a need to spend so much money and incur extra risk to enable RHB Cap to buy CIMB. If EPF wanted CIMB that badly, all it has to do is to simply buy more shares on the market.

Indeed EPF is the second largest shareholder of CIMB with an 11.6% stake while Khazanah Nasional Bhd is the largest with 28.6%.

The best thing for RHB Cap to do under the circumstances is to improve its operations further and make itself even more attractive as a merger and takeover target. Taking on too much can cause severe indigestion or worse pythons have been known to die when they swallowed a prey that was too big for them.

For EPF, an accident of fate and the need to protect their investment value, brought them a majority stake of 82% in RHB Capital which they whittled down by a sale of a 25% stake to the Abu Dhabi investors and other disposals.

They have made good profits on their RHB Cap stake but it is best not to tempt fate. It is time for them to cut their stakes in RHB Cap, and for that matter any other major stakes they have in other companies, even further.

That will stop their involvement in the management of these companies altogether, leaving this to professional managers instead. That ensures that EPF is singularly focused on managing the money of its nearly 13 million investors prudently and with a proper balance between risk and return considering that these are retirement funds that are being invested.

As it is, market players accuse EPF of channelling unfairly to RHB Cap a huge chunk of its own business such as trading in shares and bonds, fund management and corporate banking. Divesting its stake in RHB Cap further and withdrawing from any kind of management participation will enable EPF to keep all choices open when deciding on services.

What then does this proposal mean? Is it trial balloon to float an idea? Or is it bait on a hook to see if someone will bite? But for now it looks like in its current form it has little chance of success.

Managing editor P Gunasegaram is finding it increasingly difficult to decide whom to listen to these days.

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What’s next for the market?

Posted: 01 Jul 2011 05:54 PM PDT

IT'S one thing to worry about all the noise over the economic developments that envelop global markets and quite another to predict how investors will react to them. But there is one overriding common theme caution.

There are many reasons for such apprehension. The year started with the Arab revolution, which led to the political upheaval in many countries in the Middle East and North Africa. Then there were the earthquake and tsunami in Japan that wreaked havoc on the northeastern coast of the country and had repercussions elsewhere given the deep linkages Japanese industries have in the global supply chain.

If they were not enough to ignite worry among investors, the ongoing debt problems in Europe seems to be frothing over as Greece was on the verge of a massive default that would have caused a severe contagion in lenders from Germany and France, two of the EU's largest economies.

In addition, the economic malaise in US persists. At best, the economic indicators are still patchy to suggest that the United States has truly broken away from the gravity of its financial crisis. To infuse more momentum into the US economy, given fears of deflation, the US Federal Reserve embarked on a second round of printing money, called Quantitative Easing 2 (QE2) to the tune of US$600bil. While the move has injected money into the system and helped lift Wall Street, it really has done little for Main Street.

As a consequence of liquidity and growth rates rebounding in emerging markets, commodity prices have surged, lifting inflation and causing another headache for central bankers, governments and consumers world over given the rising cost of living.

The pain is not spread out evenly across all markets.

The FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI this week hit a new record high at 1,582.94 on Friday, the third consecutive day it breach record levels. Maybe it reflected the relief over the austerity measures in Greece's bailout plan which were passed amidst tough internal resistance. This lends credence to the long-held belief that when things get tough globally, foreign investors began to appreciate Malaysia's defensive qualities.

With the close of the first half of 2011, pundits are now poring over how the markets will fare in the second half. Given the volatility of markets and the unpredictability of ensuing events, most of them are likely to adopt cautious projections.

Global Fund Manager Survey

One guide to what people who manage money are thinking about is the Bank of America Merrill Lynch fund manager global survey. The latest published survey, which was conducted from June 3-9 on 282 people who managed US$828bil of assets under management, is pointing to money managers favouring less risk.

The survey's risk and liquidity indicator fell to 38, which is below the long-run average of 40 for the first time in nine months.

"The indicator had been relatively resilient so far despite growth concerns," says the report.

"Equities and commodities weights have been cut with gains for cash and bonds with most of the asset classes very close to their long-run averages."

The survey discovered that growth and profit expectations stabilised after recent sharp falls as inflation expectations fell dramatically in June from a couple of months ago.

The fund managers felt the global macroeconomic backdrop was not weak enough to warrant more stimulus as three quarters of its panellists thought a recession was unlikely and only 13% expect a new round of QE in the second half.

Despite concerns permeating investment decisions, emerging markets remain the favoured destination among those surveyed.

Although the numbers have slipped from May where 29% of fund managers polled were overweight on emerging markets, the survey revealed that 23% were positive of the prospects of emerging markets in June.

"The cut in emerging market positions comes amid a broad-based rotation towards defensive assets: Global equity allocations are reduced and the average cash level has risen from 3.9% to 4.2%," says the report.

Investors were favouring markets with domestic demand drivers and as global economic growth is forecast to drop a tad, investors trimmed their positions in cyclical stocks.

Among the most favoured emerging markets are Russia, Indonesia and China.

One painful finding of the survey is this among the emerging markets, Malaysia was the least favoured. But not all equity research houses may concur with that. Goldman Sachs, for one, has an overweight call on Malaysia and given the relative size of the Malaysian market, a handful of such calls would be enough to provide an oomph.

Defying that painful notion further is the fact that Bursa Malaysia hit an all-time high this week. Furthermore, the trading patterns in April and May show that foreign institutional investors were net buyers of Malaysian equities, quite the reverse from their net selling position earlier in February and March. As for domestic institutional investors, the trend was the opposite they were net sellers in April and May but net buyers over the previous two months.

Trading value which stood at RM52bil in January this year is trending downwards towards May which was the lowest for the year at RM31.2bil. Trading volume has also been falling on a monthly basis since January from 39.5 billion units to 18.4 billion units in May.

Largely, local retailers were net sellers for most of the year, only buying more shares than they sold in February.

Crystal ball gazing

What's next for Bursa Malaysia? Given that the exchange is at record levels, pessimism and optimism seem to be locked in a tug-of-war.

MIDF Amanah Investment Bank Bhd senior vice-president and head of research Zulkifli Hamzah says the first half performance was surprisingly resilient which largely bucked the regional trend.

"On closer observation, we would attribute the resilience of the market to foreign buying," he tells StarBizWeek.

"Foreign investors were net buyers on Bursa Malaysia in 10 of the 13 weeks between March 21 and June 19. We will not be surprised if foreign shareholding on Bursa Malaysia is higher than 22% now, as an estimated RM4.6bil of foreign money had been ploughed into local equity during that period."

Zulkifli opines that the foreign money flowing into Malaysia involves genuine portfolio funds instead of speculative money seeking quick returns.

"The upgrade of Malaysia's country status from Emerging to Advanced Emerging market by FTSE effective June partly explain the inflow of foreign money, but more importantly, we believe Malaysia is back on the radar screen of many global funds. This augurs well for the market in the second half," he says.

TA Securities head of research Kaladher Govindan says many of the worries investors had in the first half appear to be winding down and sentiment wise, the second half should be better.

He feels the concerted effort by the EU to tackle the debt crisis in Europe and Japan picking itself out of a recession should help improve market sentiment and anticipates the second half of the year to be a recovery period after a long consolidation period.

"Slower than expected growth in the United States and lingering sovereign debt issues in the US and Europe respectively are expected to drive back funds flow into emerging markets, which will benefit FBM KLCI," he says.

Zulkifli is maintaining his year end FBM KLCI target of 1,650 points but expects more volatility in the second half.

"The second half is generally wrought with downside surprises, and is also associated with major market corrections. We do not expect the perception to be any different this year," he says.

Earnings season will be the focus in August and he feels the numbers for the second quarter is expected to remain bad for airlines, shipping, resource-based industries such as gloves, steel and semiconductor.

"If there are any silver linings at all, we expect Malaysia and other resource-rich countries in this region such as Indonesia and Thailand to benefit from the switch out of China and the Asian tigers," he says.

"China is engineering a slowdown at a scale not seen by an economic super-power. The statutory reserve ratio for its banks is now at a disconcerting 21.5%. More banks will feel the squeeze."

Citigroup in its note on Malaysia says the upcoming earnings season in August will likely not excite the market.

"The conclusion of the latest results season confirms our view that overall business sentiment appears to have turned cautious as inflationary threat looms with economic activities on low gear," it says.

Citigroup feels inflation pressure for food and building materials, together with monetary tightening and higher inflation expectations from the electricity price hike could be negative in disposable income and business profitability. It is positive on chemical and consumer stocks and recommends investors take defensive positions in utilities and gaming.

Sectors to watch out for going forward are the oil and gas, plantation and banking, which recorded higher year-on-year earnings growth during the recent quarterly reporting season.

"We expect their positive earnings momentum to continue into the second half of this year," he says.

His choice of oil and gas stocks is due to higher oil prices which will not only benefit oil majors but also fabricators as well as support service providers as it encourages further upstream and downstream activities.

"Despite the recent sell down, we expect CPO price to remain firm as the global demand for vegetable oils is rather inelastic," he says.

He thinks earnings growth for banks will be underpinned by healthy loan growth, enhanced fee-based income, lesser provision with improved asset qualities and the rising overnight policy rate (OPR) which cushioned the pressure on margin.

Apart from these sectors, Kaladher is also overweight on construction.

"Players in the domestic-oriented sectors will do well on the back a stronger ringgit and weaker dollar," he says.

Inflationary environment bodes well for property sector as well as investors switch from holding cash to real estates."

Exporters that rely heavily on dollar based sales like those in the electrical and electronics segment will be hit and Kaladher says it will be a double whammy for manufacturers, for instance glove producers, who do not have a natural hedge due to high local cost content.

Economic Transformation Programme

Analysts have said the economy will also be a key determinant on how stocks will react in the second half of the year.

ECM Libra Investment Bank Bhd research head Bernard Ching says that with stock valuations for Malaysian equities more expensive than regional peers, analysts will be keeping an eye out on how the economy performs not only for the next six months.

"We are really looking at 2012," he says.

Economists have in recent weeks downgraded growth projections for Malaysia for 2011 as some have cut their estimates to the lower end of the Government's growth projection of 5% to 6%.

Merrill Lynch (Singapore) Pte Ltd economist Chua Hak Bin feels with the second quarter probably growing by between 4% and 4.5% as global growth slows, the external environment and the sluggish performance of Malaysia's exports would make things tough for the country.

"Achieving 5% is a stretch given the global soft patch. Exports are not going to help," he says.

One area that might, and the Government and analysts are looking at, compensate for the slower external growth is the economic transformation programme (ETP).

Credit Suisse analyst Stephen Hagger feels the ETP will succeed where others have failed due to its structure, which is private sector driven.

"We believe Malaysia is entering a super cycle' of investment and growth that could result in 6% to 7% per annum. GDP growth for three years, due to the ETP, investment from Singapore, looming general election and cash flow from commodities notably palm oil and rubber," he says in a note.

Kaladher says the ETP and other transformational programmes undertaken by the Government would offer protection for the stock market in the second half.

"In a way the market has shown resilience in the last six months when most regional indices tumbled towards their March low," he says.

"The Government's ETP commitment provides some sort of visibility for domestic projects that are expected to cushion the external slowdown."

In a report on June 13, Credit Suisse says 50% of the ETP projects have taken off. The cumulative ETP-related investments total RM170.3bil.

Zulkifli too agrees on the influence of the ETP and the Government Transformation Programme (GTP), saying those programmes were already in the process of taking the country to the next level.

"Despite all the challenges, the government has managed to institute pro-active programmes to move the country forward, and it is now a matter of execution," he says.

Apart from the ETP acting as a buffer for sentiment, there are other factors that can act as stabilisers for the stock market in the second half.

"The weightage of banking stocks on the KLCI alone is about 34%, and Malaysian banks are among the best capitalised in the region. Add that by another 16% weightage on plantation stocks and 7% on power stocks, one will get a better appreciation of the defensive nature of the FBM KLCI," says Zulkifli.

"But from a global perspective, the strongest protection accorded to the FBM KLCI is probably the strength of the ringgit, which we expect to hit RM2.95 to US$1 sometime in the second half. The fundamentals of the ringgit are stronger than that for the US dollar, and that is important for the dollar carry trade."

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Cautious sentiment for second half

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Sri Lanka beats England by 69 runs in 2nd ODI

Posted: 01 Jul 2011 05:55 PM PDT

HEADINGLEY, England (AP) — Mahela Jayawardene struck an imperious century to inspire Sri Lanka to a convincing 69-run win over England in the second one-day international in Leeds on Friday, leveling the five-match series at 1-1.

Jayawardene's classy knock of 144 off 150 balls — his 15th ODI hundred and highest score in 321 limited-overs innings — helped the tourists post a formidable 309-5 under sunny skies at Headingley.

England's reply started positively, reaching 201-4 after 38 overs with one-day specialist Eoin Morgan (52) looking in prime form.

Yet the Irish-born batsman's dismissal provoked a stunning collapse, with England losing its final six wickets for just 39 runs.

Spinners Suraj Randiv (3-43) and Jeevan Mendis (2-31) were instrumental in stifling the hosts' run chase, which if successful would have been England's biggest on home soil in ODI internationals.

All of England's top-order batsmen got themselves in good positions but none of them were able to go on to make a big score, with wickets falling at regular intervals.

Captain Alastair Cook impressed with a rapid 48 off 52 balls but was caught on the off-side boundary by Angelo Mathews off the bowling of Randiv, leaving England on 85-2.

Lasith Malinga then took a sensational diving catch to his right — meters from the rope — as Mendis dismissed Kevin Pietersen (13), who was looking in fine shape.

Jonathan Trott (39) was bowled by a yorker from Suranga Lakmal but Morgan stepped up the run rate, bludgeoning successive sixes off short balls by Mendis over the midwicket boundary and quickly reaching his 13th ODI half-century, off 37 balls.

Morgan departed when he was deceived by the flight of a Randiv delivery, Sangakkara taking a difficult stumping opportunity, before the hosts imploded.

Jayawardene, with his fifth ODI century against England, had earlier underpinned Sri Lanka's recovery from 45-2 after the early run-outs of captain Tillakaratne Dilshan (9) and Dinesh Chandimal (5).

Both crazily attempted quick singles after prodding deliveries towards the mid-on area but Stuart Broad landed a direct hit to dismiss Dilshan before the diving James Anderson did the same to Chandimal, recalled to the team in place of retired veteran opener Sanath Jayasuriya.

Jayawardene and Sangakkara were unruffled, though, leaning on more than 600 matches of ODI experience to gain control of England's bowlers.

The way they eased the attack around Headingley revived memories of the World Cup quarterfinal between the teams in March, when Dilshan and Upul Tharanga hit delightful centuries in the Sri Lankans' 10-wicket thrashing in Colombo.

Playing at the same pace but with slightly more vision than Sangakkara, Jayawardene unleashed his full repertoire of strokes, from chops down to the third-man boundary to vicious straight drives and over-the-shoulder paddles.

Jayawardene, dropped by Swann at first slip when on 7, went on to strike 14 boundaries before his excellent knock ended, caught stranded down the crease as he went after the offspinner (2-42). His previous best score was 128 against India in 2000.

With Sangakkara, also stumped by Craig Kieswetter off Swann, gone by then as well after an assured 85-ball knock featuring five fours, Sri Lanka found itself on 271-4 with five overs remaining.

The dangerous Mathews (46) swatted seven balls to the boundary in an entertaining cameo at the death.

Scoreboard Friday after England's reply in the second one-day international against Sri Lanka at Headingley:

Sri Lanka

Mahela Jayawardene st Kieswetter b Swann 144

Tillakaratne Dilshan run out (Broad) 9

Dinesh Chandimal run out (Anderson) 5

Kumar Sangakkara st Kieswetter b Swann 69

Angelo Mathews not out 46

Nuwan Kulasekara c Pietersen b Bresnan 13

Jeevan Mendis not out 7

Extras: (5 lb, 11w) 16

TOTAL: (for five wickets) 309

Overs: 50.

Fall of wickets: 1-15, 2-45, 3-204, 4-271, 5-296

Did not bat: Thilina Kandamby, Suranga Lakmal, Suraj Randiv, Lasith Malinga.

Bowling: James Anderson 10-0-44-0 (3w), Tim Bresnan 9-0-70-1, Stuart Broad 10-0-70-0 (2w), Jade Dernbach 9-0-63-0 (4w), Graeme Swann 10-0-42-2, Kevin Pietersen 2-0-15-0 (1w).

England

Alastair Cook c Mathews b Randiv 48

Craig Kieswetter c Kulasekara b Lakmal 25

Jonathan Trott b Lakmal 39

Kevin Pietersen c Malinga b Mendis 13

Eoin Morgan st Sangakkara b Randiv 52

Ian Bell c Lakmal b Kulasekara 35

Tim Bresnan c Chandimal b Randiv 2

Stuart Broad st Sangakkara b Mendis 1

Graeme Swann not out 13

James Anderson b Malinga 0

Jade Dernbach c Kulasekara b Lakmal 5

Extras: (1lb, 6w) 7

TOTAL: (all out) 240

Overs: 45.5

Fall of wickets: 1-53, 2-85, 3-113, 4-144, 5-201, 6-204, 7-206, 8-232, 9-233

Bowling: Tillakaratne Dilshan 4-0-29-0 (1w), Nuwan Kulasekara 9-0-39-1, Lasith Malinga 8-0-41-1 (2w), Suranga Lakmal 7.5-0-43-3 (1w), Suraj Randiv 9-0-43-3 (1w), Jeevan Mendis 6-0-31-2 (1w), Angelo Mathews 2-13-0

Toss: England.

Series: 1-1

Umpires: Billy Bowden, New Zealand, and Richard Kettleborough, England.

Third umpire: Nigel Llong, England. Match referee: Alan Hurst, Australia.


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Hot dog champ eats 20,000 calories, says doctor approves

Posted: 01 Jul 2011 05:52 PM PDT

NEW YORK (AP) — Hot dog eating champion Joey Chestnut estimates he eats about 20,000 calories in one shot at food competitions, but he says his doctor doesn't mind.

"In the long run I'm really not consuming that many more calories than most people," the four-time Nathan's Famous International Hot Dog Eating Contest champion said Friday at an appearance ahead of the yearly Fourth of July eat-off. "I run. I really try to stay healthy. I count my calories rigorously when I'm not doing the contests."

Chesnut said that at 27, he's young enough to get away with his competitive binging for a few more years. His doctor checks his blood work and has told him not to worry as long as he gives himself time to recover, doesn't gain weight and doesn't develop diabetes, Chestnut said.

Chestnut is 6'1" (1.85 meters) and weighs 218 pounds (99 kilograms). A physically active man of his age, weight and height should be eating 3,200 calories a day to maintain his weight, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture.

In 2009, the contest's reigning champion set a world record when he ate 68 hot dogs and buns in 10 minutes. Last year, he won with just 54 dogs.

On Friday, Chestnut gathered near New York's City Hall with other eaters including the presumed female front-runner, 105-pound (48-kilogram) Sonya "The Black Widow" Thomas.

This is the first year Nathan's is holding a separate eat-off for women. Sponsor Pepto Bismol has created ornate championship belts for the winners — one in mustard yellow and one in pepto pink.

Last year's competition was overshadowed by the arrest of previous six-time champion Takeru Kobayashi, who jumped on the stage after Chestnut's victory. The 33-year-old from Japan has refused to sign a contract with Major League Eating and so was barred from competing.

This year, Kobayashi will hold his own unofficial event miles away on a Manhattan rooftop. He'll watch the Nathan's contest on TV and try to out-eat all the competitors.


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Hincapie set to match Tour longevity record

Posted: 01 Jul 2011 05:47 PM PDT

LA-ROCHE-SUR-YON, France (AP) — George Hincapie rode alongside Lance Armstrong on his record run of seven Tour de France victories — and now is about to match a record of his own at cycling's greatest race

To the backdrop of a doping investigation in which Hincapie has reportedly implicated both Armstrong and himself, the American is about to equal Dutch rider Joop Zoetemelk's mark of starting and finishing 16 Tours.

Hincapie, who turned 38 on Wednesday and now has a tiny hint of gray in his closely cropped dark hair, is a selfless workhorse who gained his greatest individual Tour glory with a dazzling mountain stage win up to Pla d'Adet in the Pyrenees six years ago.

Modest and soft-spoken, Hincapie was a bit reluctant to reflect on the record he's set to equal.

"With all this talk of the record, you guys are actually making me kind of nervous at the Tour — which I haven't been in a long time," Hincapie said Friday at a BMC team news conference. "I guess I haven't really dwelled on it that much."

For a rider who has spent most of his career in the background, it is a rare chance to take some of the limelight.

"It's an honor. When I first turned professional, I had hoped that I could do 10 years as a professional, and a couple of Tour de Frances," Hincapie said. "Being here 18 years later, and 16 Tour de Frances later, is something I never would have imagined."

Hincapie has been in the news for different reasons recently, after CBS program "60 Minutes" reported in May that he told federal authorities that he and Armstrong supplied each other with performance-enhancing drugs and discussed them.

Armstrong has always denied doping during his seven consecutive Tour victories from 1999-2005. Hincapie has said he never spoke to "60 Minutes" but has otherwise declined to discuss the report.

He is looking forward to slipping into the background again at this year's race, where he will take on a lieutenant role once more to help BMC leader Cadel Evans of Australia, a two-time runner-up at the Tour.

"My priorities here at the Tour are help Cadel try to win the Tour de France — he's been a phenomenal racer his whole career, and in the last two years, in my opinion, he's really stepped it up higher than he's ever been."

That doesn't mean Hincapie would pass up an opportunity for a breakaway if it suits him.

"I'd love to be in there, and to try to win a stage would be incredible," he said.

His peers and managers marvel at his longevity, and say that he's evolved greatly over the years — now an elder statesman and voice of authority in the peloton.

"George has changed roles somewhere along the way here in his career and continues to be what I consider a still young George Hincapie," said BMC president Jim Ochowicz.

Asked if he felt young, Hincapie quickly answered "No" with a smile.

While Hincapie has seen team leaders come and go and Tour routes change from year to year, there has always been one thing that remained a constant at the race.

"It's always been incredibly hard. The first Tour de France I did, I was kind of praying that I'd crash — it was that hard — and I did crash," Hincapie said. "Unfortunately, I had the eight stitches in my head and all that.

"Now, I'm a lot more experienced, I'm a lot fitter, and I know how to gauge my efforts more," he added. "You know, in these three weeks, every little bit counts."

When he finally does retire from the sport, his fondest memory of the Tour will have nothing to do with being on the bike.

"I've got to say, not cycling-related: meeting my wife in Paris," he said. "I know that's hard to believe, but we met in Paris in 2003 and we've got two beautiful children, so I owe a lot to the Tour de France."

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KL's River of Life project takes off

Posted: 01 Jul 2011 06:22 AM PDT

Published: Friday July 1, 2011 MYT 9:09:00 PM
Updated: Friday July 1, 2011 MYT 9:22:07 PM

KUALA LUMPUR: The much-anticipated River of Life project, which aims to revitalise and transform Kuala Lumpur's dirty rivers, has taken off.

"I believe there will be a drastic change to Kuala Lumpur's image," said Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Tun Razak.

"This is what Kuala Lumpur folks have been waiting for.

"The Klang river has all the elements to become an attractive waterfront bustling with daily activities," he said at the launch of the project to transform the Klang and Gombak rivers into iconic waterfronts on par with big cities such as Amsterdam, London, Melbourne and Paris by 2020 on Friday.

The Greater KL-Klang Valley project is an Entry Point Project under the Government's Economic Transformation Programme.

Najib said the project would contribute RM11.3bil to the country's Gross Domestic Product until 2020.

The RM4bil project is divided into three parts, namely river cleaning which would involve a 110km stretch along the Klang river basin; river beautification along a 10.7km stretch by the Klang and Gombak river corridor which will include pedestrian walkways; and corridor development.

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Ali Rustam cycles to launch 'go green' campaign

Posted: 01 Jul 2011 05:34 AM PDT

Published: Friday July 1, 2011 MYT 8:28:00 PM
Updated: Friday July 1, 2011 MYT 8:34:08 PM

MALACCA: Chief Minister Datuk Seri Mohd Ali Rustam, state executive council members and heads of government departments rode bicycles for two kilometres to launch the "go green" campaign.

He headed a convoy of 100 participants starting from the Chief Minister's residence at Seri Bendahara in Ayer Keroh, reaching his office Seri Negeri at 8am.

"I encourage the people to ride bicycles and support the state government's effort to implement the 'go green' mission," he told reporters.

The federal government had recently announced that Malacca would be the first state to model green technology.

"I will cycle to my office at Seri Negeri every Friday," he said. Mohd Ali also urged the public to submit suggestions to the state government on a suitable location for bicycling activities. - Bernama

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Syariah Bar Council to be formed, says PM

Posted: 01 Jul 2011 05:16 AM PDT

Published: Friday July 1, 2011 MYT 5:24:00 PM
Updated: Friday July 1, 2011 MYT 8:16:31 PM

PUTRAJAYA: The Syariah Bar Council will be formed to regulate the Syariah practice and protect clients of legal services, said Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Tun Razak.

He said the new council was needed as there had been ethical issues including Syariah lawyers cheating their clients, exhorbitant legal fees and the use of fake evidence.

He said the Syariah Legal Profession Act would be enacted to facilitate the formation of the council.

"The time has come for us to have an Act, similar to the Legal Profession Act 1976, and set up a Syariah Bar Council like the Malaysian Bar Council," he said when opening the 13th All-Malaysia Syariah Officers Conference Friday.

Najib said that in an effort to strengthen the Syariah judicial system, the government would set up an academy - Institut Latihan Kehakiman Syariah Malaysia or ILKAS (Syariah Judicial Training Institute of Malaysia) - to provide professional training to Syariah prosecutors, officers and lawyers.

Minister in the Prime Minister's Department Datuk Seri Jamil Khir Baharom said a bill was in the final stages of preparation. "The aspects being considered include the welfare of clients, regulations which will facilitate reference for the lawyers and clients, and setting the legal fees. -Bernama

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