The Star Online: Business
The Star Online: Business |
- Report: India unlikely to raise edible oil import duties soon
- Report: Gold prices to hit record high this year
- Malaysia-Market factors to watch on Jan 17(Thursday)
| Report: India unlikely to raise edible oil import duties soon Posted: 16 Jan 2013 05:57 PM PST NEW DELHI: India is unlikely to increase import duties on edible oils, including palm oil, immediately, government sources said on Wednesday, after speculation of an imminent rise to curb a surge in overseas purchases of cooking oils pushed futures higher. Malaysia, one of India's biggest suppliers, ended Kuala Lumpur's export duty on crude palm oil from Jan. 1 and imports could hit a record in January, a senior industry official has said, prompting calls for retaliation from domestic producers. "No item on edible oil duty hike is listed so far for tomorrow's (Thursday's) cabinet meeting," one of the sources told Reuters. Soyoil futures had been gaining on speculation there might be an imminent duty increase. The most actively traded soyoil contract on the National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange closed at 715 rupees ($13.1) per 10 kg, losing 1.1 percent from the day's high at 722.8 rupees. India is the world's top vegetable oil buyer and imported 783,091 tonnes of palm oil in December against 614,574 tonnes in November, way beyond trade expectations. More than half of its 16-17 million tonnes of edible oils demand is met via imports with nearly 80 percent palm oil. A population growing at the rate of about 19 million people a year, along with an increasingly wealthy middle class, continue to push demand higher. India allows duty free imports of all types of edible oils including palm oil and imposes a flat 7.5 percent duty on refined oils. Any move by India against Malaysia, the world's No. 2 palm oil producer, would not be the first time New Delhi has faced pressure to change its import taxes. In August, the South Asian country raised its taxable level of refined palm oil cargoes to make the product more expensive and help local farmers and refiners. That was a response to a cut in 2011 in export taxes on processed grades by top palm oil producer Indonesia, to half of those of crude, to encourage its processing industry and lift earnings from higher value-products. India is bound by global trade agreements not to raise import duties abruptly or without reason. India buys mainly palm oils from Indonesia and Malaysia and a small quantity of soyoil from Brazil and Argentina. [$1 = 54.6000 Indian rupees] - Reuters
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| Report: Gold prices to hit record high this year Posted: 16 Jan 2013 05:54 PM PST Investors to drive gold price higher in H1-GFMS 16/01/13 21:07:27 LONDON: Persistent concerns over the health of the U.S. economy and pressure on the dollar will send gold prices to a record average high this year, Thomson Reuters GFMS said on Wednesday, before the metal's 12-year bull run tops out late in the year. Gold investment fuelled by negative real interest rates and debt concerns is seen driving prices higher in the first six months of 2013, it said, offsetting a dip in jewellery demand and a rise in mine and scrap supply. GFMS forecasts that gold prices will average $1,775 an ounce in the first half of 2013, up from an average $1,685 in the second half of 2012, and well above the previous half-yearly record average of $1,693 set in the last six months of 2011. It expects gold to average $1,847 an ounce in the full year, but monthly forecasts suggest it will peak in late 2013. Prices are expected to remain extremely elevated in the first half of 2014. The company is forecasting a surge in implied net investment, which covers activity in exchange-traded funds, futures and over-the-counter trading, in the next six months to 152 tonnes, against 59 tonnes in the first half of last year. That is likely to balance a projected 4.2 percent, or 40 tonne, drop in jewellery offtake -- which is expected to weaken especially in the major Indian market -- a 20 tonne rise in mine output and a 57 tonne increase in scrap supply. "I think we could see investment in a number of arenas, and at a higher set of prices," GFMS' head of research Philip Klapwijk said. "Commentary on the dollar/euro has shifted in recent months from being very bearish on the euro. We don't see much scope for dollar appreciation this year." "We are also expecting the Fed will continue with its asset purchase programmes, and that we won't see these cease in 2013," he added. "We think the U.S. economic performance will disappoint this year." Implied net investment more than tripled last year, GFMS estimated, to 354 tonnes from 104 tonnes in 2011, picking up the slack after physical bar investment fell by a fifth to 961 tonnes. Jewellery buying, the largest demand segment, fell 4.4 percent to 1,885 tonnes. Global coin minting is forecast to have dropped to a four-year low of 199 tonnes, down 19 percent from the previous year. High prices weighed on demand from jewellers last year, particularly in price-sensitive Asian markets such as India, historically the world's largest consumer of the precious metal. Jewellery fabrication demand in the Indian subcontinent fell 11 percent last year to 624 tonnes, and was down in almost every individual region. It rose 5 percent in the Middle East, however. INDIAN DEMAND EXPECTED TO EASE Fabrication demand from India and its subcontinent is forecast to fall to 322 tonnes in the first half from 348 tonnes in the same period of 2012. Indian jewellery demand is expected to dip 9 percent in the first half, leaving it at a four-year low. Fabrication demand in east Asia, which includes China and smaller markets such as Hong Kong, Taiwan, Vietnam and Malaysia, is expected to dip just over 2 percent to 465 tonnes. Chinese jewellery fabrication demand fell in 2012 for the first time in nine years, though by only 1 percent. Chinese fabrication demand failed to take over from that of India, still the world's biggest overall gold consumer, as it had been forecast to do. "Though we expect this year that China could take on a firmer tone, we're still concerned about prospects for India," Klapwijk said. "That has provided a slightly less secure floor for the price, as opposed to a rising floor." Bullion demand from central banks, which have turned from net sellers to net buyers in recent years in a bid to diversify reserves, is forecast to remain relatively steady in the first six months of the year at 280 tonnes, against 277 tonnes in the same period of 2012. Gold buying from the official sector rose by 79 tonnes to a 48-year high of 536 tonnes last year as a whole, GFMS said. On the supply side of the market, mine supply is expected to tick up 1.5 percent to 1,389 tonnes in the first half. Recycling of gold scrap is set to increase a weightier 7.5 percent, with scrap flows rising in the Middle East, east Asia and India, falling in Europe, and stagnant in North America. Scrap supply from the Middle East is expected to climb nearly 18 percent to 192 tonnes, and by a similar percentage from the Indian subcontinent, to 91 tonnes. - Reuters
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| Malaysia-Market factors to watch on Jan 17(Thursday) Posted: 16 Jan 2013 05:49 PM PST KUALA LUMPUR: Following is a list of events in Malaysia as well as news company-related and market news which could have an influence on the local market. GLOBAL MARKETS-Shares flat as financials offset growth concerns SE Asia Stocks-Thai stocks fall further; Indonesia at record WHAT IS HAPPENING IN MALAYSIA, IN TIMES LOCAL FOLLOWED BY GMT: > Ingenuity Consolidated Bhd holds EGM at Bukit Jalil Golf & Country Resort, Kuala Lumpur at 0930am (0130). > AirAsia X's new route announcement: Kuala Lumpur to Jeddah at The Royale Chulan Hotel, Kuala Lumpur at 1430pm (0630). > Resorts World Genting's mobile apps hit 10,000 downloads talk show at Wisma Genting, Kuala Lumpur at 1500pm (0700). > Express Rail Link 10th anniversary gala dinner & book launch at The Majestic Hotel KL, Jalan Hishamuddin, Kuala Lumpur at 1915pm (1115). MARKET NEWS > Japan's Nikkei recovers slightly after sharp fall > S&P 500 ends flat as bank profits temper growth > U.S. bond prices rise on view on Fed purchases > Euro still looking for inspiration, yen firm > Platinum up for 7th day as South Africa crisis stirs supply fears > Oil rises on Algerian gas field attack, US stock draw > Malaysia's zero export-tax optimism lifts palm oil MALAYSIA IN THE NEWS: > Gangnam Style' takes top song prize at 'K-pop Grammys' > Japan's Abe turns to SE Asia to counter China > Stansted attracts three bids worth 1 bln pounds-sources > India unlikely to hike import duty on vegoil soon-sources > Iraqi approves Samsung's $879 mln oilfield contract-govt > Indonesia rules out changes to palm export tax structure > Badminton's future in doubt, says gold medallist Taufik - Reuters VEGOILS-Market factors to watch Jan 17(Thursday KUALA LUMPUR, Jan 16 (Reuters) - The following factors are likely to influence Malaysian palm oil futures and other vegetable oil markets. FUNDAMENTALS * Malaysian palm oil futures rose to their highest in over a week on Wednesday on investor optimism a zero-duty tax structure will spur exports from the world's No.2 producer and help boost global demand for the tropical oil. * U.S. grains rose on Wednesday, with corn rebounding from early losses to post the longest rally since June, as dry weather in South America and the United States stoked fears that the slimmest grain stocks in six years could tighten further. * Oil prices rose on Wednesday after an Algerian gas field came under attack from Islamist militants and as data showed crude stocks fell in the United States last week. MARKET NEWS * World stock markets ended flat on Wednesday as strong financial results lifted banking shares, though weak data from Europe raised concerns about the global growth rate. * Fear of dry weather drove soybean and corn prices to multi-week highs on Wednesday, setting up what could be another prolonged rally in U.S. agricultural markets after last summer's bumper run. RELATED NEWS > Odds favor 2013 summer drought in U.S. Corn Belt > Indonesia rules out changes to palm export tax structure. - Reuters
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