Isnin, 7 April 2014

The Star Online: Business

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The Star Online: Business

Maybulk a 'buy' on POSH factor

Posted: 07 Apr 2014 09:00 AM PDT


By RHB Research

Rating: Buy

Target Price: RM2.48

RHB understands that Maybulk's 21%-owned offshore unit, PACC Offshore Services Holdings (POSH), is slated for listing soon that could potentially raise up to US$400mil (RM1.3bil) according to Reuters. The investor education marketing has already started and will last two weeks.

POSH is a leading operator in South-East Asia and operates a fleet of more than 50 vessels, with another 50 to be delivered over the next three years.

We have no confirmation on whether Maybulk will divest its stake in the unit through this listing.

Should this be the case, gains could be paid out as dividends or utilised for more vessel acquisitions in the future.

We think this catalyst has, to a certain extent, re-rated Maybulk's valuation of late.

Putting POSH against a comparable Singapore peer like Ezra, which trades at 15x FY14 price to earnings, will provide the valuation lift for Maybulk.

We see an indicative market cap of RM4.85bil on POSH's upcoming listing. We see further upside to POSH's valuations, as more disclosures on the company and its outlook are made.

We upgrade our call on Maybulk to a buy from neutral. As a cross check to our SOP, assuming a 20% discount to the market value on Maybulk's vessels will derive a comparable FV of RM2.23 per share.


By AM Research

Rating: Buy

Target Price: RM3.00

AmResearch re-affirms its high conviction buy on Berjaya Auto (BAuto) following recent meeting sessions with management as well as a plant visit.

Its fair value is raised to RM3.00 from RM2.50 after raising its earnings projections and rolling over its valuation to the calendar year 2015 forecast earnings.

BAuto's energy efficient vehicle (EEV) incentive application for the completely knocked down (CKD) CX5 was approved last quarter. This raises the excise duty rebates it is enjoying by 25% from the existing base. Duty cost is huge, at up to 40%-45% of operating costs.

We estimate the CX5's cost to drop by 10%-11% post-incentive, mainly from the fourth quarter of the financial year 2014 as CKD production recovery becomes more pronounced.

Management targets CKDs to account for 75% of TIV in FY15F (vs. our FY14F: 44%, FY15F: 67%, FY16F: 83%) mainly due to the deviation in Mazda 3 projection. Any higher than expected sales of the Mazda 3 means upside to both our volume and margin forecasts.

We raise our projections by 4%-18% over FY15-16F (and FY14 forecast by 1%) to factor in higher duty savings gained from EEV incentives and Mazda 6 exports at a rate of 4,000 units per year from the fourth quarter of FY15 (f).


By Maybank Research

Rating: Hold

Target Price: RM23.50

PetGas released further details of the new gas processing and transportation agreements (GPTA) from Petroliam Nasional Bhd (Petronas) in a briefing last Friday.

Specifically on gas processing, the higher reservation charge is offset by lower fees for liquid by-products. A larger portion of the revenue is now fixed. From the initial headlines, it appeared the new reservation charge was significantly higher than the previous. Nevertheless, with full details now revealed, the higher reservation charge is largely offset by lower fees for liquid by-products.

Overall, we estimate only a 5% increase in annual processing revenue.

The increase in reservation charge means a larger proportion of the processing revenue is now fixed. In addition, a single transportation tariff now applies to Peninsular Malaysia (from zonal rates previously).

There is now less volatility in PetGas' revenue.

We revise our earnings forecasts -1% for FY14, while FY15-16 a +0.7-3.7%. Our new target price of RM23.50 (from RM20.20 previously) is based on the discounted cash flow basis, assuming the 6.3% weighted average cost of capital and a 2% long-term growth.

Samsung profits fall for second straight quarter

Posted: 07 Apr 2014 07:01 PM PDT

SEOUL: Samsung Electronics on Tuesday posted estimated first quarter operating profits of 8.4 trillion won (US$7.96bil), marking a second straight year-on-year decline as growth in smartphone sales slow.

The estimate was in line with market expectations.

Analysts had forecast that operating profit for the world's largest mobile phone maker would be somewhere between 8.14 and 8.63 trillion won for the January-March period.

"The operating profits fell for two straight quarters year-on-year as profit margins in smartphones were falling and the growth rate in smartphone sales was decreasing due to growing competition," analyst Young Park of Hyundai Securities told AFP.

The figure was down 4.3% from the first quarter of 2013, when the South Korean giant recorded operating profits of 8.78 trillion won.

But compared with the previous quarter, it marked a 1.08% increase.

In January Samsung had posted a operating profits of 8.3 trillion won for the last quarter of 2013 – a 6% decline on the previous year – due to a one-off bonus, a strong won and slowing smartphone sales.

First-quarter sales were estimated at 53 trillion won, up 0.24% from the 52.87 trillion won a year earlier.

Profits for the company's IT and mobile operations grew to 6.2 trillion won, up from 5.5 trillion won the previous quarter, Park said.

Earnings for the mobile division improved, following the earlier-than-expected release of its latest smartphone in South Korea, analysts said.

The Galaxy S5 – which Samsung hopes will cement its lead in the global smartphone market – came out at home on March 27, two weeks earlier than the global launch slated for April 11.

But the company's television division fell into the red due to falling global prices.

Operating profits for the company's semiconductor division were estimated to be about the same level as the September-December period at two trillion won, Park said.

For the whole of 2014, Samsung's operating profit is likely to be around 37 trillion won, about the same as last year's, he added.

But Greg Roh of HMC Investment Securities said Samsung's overall 2014 operating profit was likely to fall to 35 trillion won because of the slowing demand for smartphones.

Samsung plans to announce its fixed first-quarter earnings later this month. – AFP

Public Bank, CIMB drag KLCI into the red

Posted: 07 Apr 2014 06:55 PM PDT

KUALA LUMPUR: Shares of Public Bank and CIMB were among the top losers early Tuesday as investors took profit after the recent surge in their share prices, dragging the FBM KLCI down nearly nine points.

At 9.34am, the KLCI was down 8.8 point to 1,854.1. Turnover was 373.14 million shares valued at RM207.38mil. There were 181 gainers, 246 losers and 246 counters unchanged.

Public Bank foreign fell the most, down 36 sen to RM19.94 while the local shares lost 28 sen to RM20. Hong Leong Capital shed 18 sen to RM12 and CIMB was down 11 sen to RM7.39.

A foreign research house said it expected Public bank's consumer segment to come under pressure.

"Consumer loans account for about 57% of total loans book, which is larger than CIMB (on a group basis, it accounts for 42%). Industry consumer loans growth is expected to decelerate to around 10% from 12% currently.

"CIMB on the other hand is partly insulated by the slowdown given its large exposure to corporate loans which accounts for 58% of its loans book. We have seen a pick- up in industry-wide corporate loans growth from 5% middle of last year to 9% currently.

"Margins will be under pressure for Public Bank while the pressure on CIMB will be there but to a lesser extent. Another overhang for Public Bank is the possibility of a rights issue given its CET 1 ratio of 8.3%, which is the lowest among the large caps," it said.


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