The Star Online: World Updates
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- Analysis - China's next inner circle
- Netanyahu says Iran using nuclear talks to "buy time" for bomb
- Opposition leader visits Syria amid Assad offensive
| Analysis - China's next inner circle Posted: 03 Mar 2013 04:14 PM PST HONG KONG (Reuters)-Even as Xi Jinping gets ready to assume the presidency of China this month, jockeying has begun for 2017 when rising stars of the ruling Communist Party move into top leadership posts.
China's first and second generation Communist Party leaders, such as Mao Zedong and Deng Xiaoping, ruled as single paramount leaders. But over the past two decades, Chinese leaders have tried to institutionalise governance with an emphasis on collective leadership - except when it comes to choosing leaders. The process is highly secretive and influenced by faction leaders who jockey to get their allies on the 25-member Politburo and its apex body, the seven-member Politburo Standing Committee. "In certain areas the rules and the norms of institutionalisation continue, but in certain areas they are subject to manipulation, in particular with regard to the selection of the Politburo," said Cheng Li, director of research at the John L. Thornton China Center in the Foreign Policy program at the Brookings Institution. China's once-in-a-decade leadership transition last November installed a largely caretaker leadership in the Standing Committee. In 2017, five of the seven members will reach retirement age after one term in office. Only China's top two leaders, president-in-waiting Xi Jinping and premier-in-waiting Li Keqiang, will remain on the powerful body in 2017. Two main factions are competing for power within the Standing Committee. Members of the "Shanghai Gang", headed by former Party chief Jiang Zemin, have connections to China's commercial capital. The other main faction, the "Tuanpai," is led by outgoing President Hu Jintao. Its members, like him, cultivated their careers in the Communist Youth League. Most of the Politburo members and provincial Party secretaries eligible for promotion in the next term in 2017 have experience in the Communist Youth League, according to data from "Connected China"(http://connectedchina.reuters.com), a Reuters site that tracks the careers and connections of China's top leaders. Although the Politburo appointed in November shows strong ties to Jiang Zemin, analysts say outgoing President Hu Jintao's Communist Youth League faction will gain the upper hand over the longer term. A third group has also ascended rapidly - the princelings, or privileged children of revolutionary leaders. Key princelings include Xi and Politburo Standing Committee members Yu Zhengsheng, Wang Qishan and Zhang Dejiang. CONSENSUS BUILDER Xi is the first Communist Party General Secretary to take power while his two predecessors are both still alive. That puts him in the role of cautious consensus-builder between factions allied to his two predecessors, rather than an agent of reform, political analysts said. "I don't think can push much because it's still a Jiang (Zemin) Politburo Standing Committee," said David Zweig, a Chinese politics scholar at Hong Kong University of Science and Technology. Six of the seven members on the Standing Committee have ties to Jiang, who relinquished the top Party position over a decade ago. Premier-in-waiting Li, whose ties with Hu go back to the 1980s, is the only Standing Committee member considered to be a Hu protégé and a member of his Tuanpai faction. But the 86-year-old Jiang is 16 years Hu's senior. Few of his protégés are expected to stay on when the Standing Committee members are scheduled to retire in 2017. Factions of this kind rarely survive the death of its leader, said Jiangnan Zhu, a Hong Kong University associate professor specializing in Chinese politics. "Usually, when a patron dies, his followers can't hold together for very long, and his faction will eventually fall. This was basically the case for Mao, the most powerful patron in CCP history," Zhu said. TUANPAI CONNECTIONS The Tuanpai could be the exception. It traces its origins to former Communist Youth League leader Hu Yaobang, who promoted many Tuanpai officials, including Hu Jintao, during his tenure as Party General Secretary in the 1980s. The Tuanpai's influence expanded under Hu when he became General Secretary in 2002. Under Hu the number of Tuanpai leaders in top provincial top posts increased from five in 2002 to 13 in 2005, and rose to 21 in 2010. Connections to the Communist Youth League are a common denominator for many figures seen as the next generation of leaders, data from Connected China shows. Of the 14 members in the 25-member Politburo eligible for another term in 2017, nine have worked in the Communist Youth League and are considered to be protégés or allies of Hu. Only five are known to have ties with Jiang. Communist Youth League experience is even more prevalent among provincial-level Party chiefs. Provincial Party leadership has become almost a prerequisite for a top leadership post. Among the 29 eligible for Politburo membership next year, 19 have experience in the Communist Youth League, and 11 are considered to be members of the Tuanpai faction, the data from Connected China shows. FIFTH AND SIXTH GENERATION The promotion of so many Communist Youth League members is largely credited to Hu protégé, Li Yuanchao. As head of the Party's Organisation Department, he promoted many of his mentor's allies. Three of the top contenders for seats in the 2017 Politburo Standing Committee are linked to Hu Jintao - Li Yuanchao, former Guangdong provincial Party chief Wang Yang, and the current Guangdong boss, Hu Chunhua. If promoted, those three along with premier-in-waiting Li, would occupy more than half of the Standing Committee seats in 2017. "Hu Jintao has been very successful in nurturing future leaders amongst the fifth and the sixth generation from the youth league," said Willy Lam, a scholar on Chinese history and politics at the Chinese University of Hong Kong. But the Tuanpai also has a problem, he said. Except perhaps for Wang Yang and Li Yuanchao who are seen as experienced leaders, few other leaders from the Tuanpai have a strong track record. XI'S POWER BASE Xi's power base is in the military where a number of princelings have made their careers, according to Lam. The data from Connected China shows Xi has far fewer ties to other contenders in the Party and the government. Of the 14 members of the Politburo eligible for another term in 2017, only two are known to have close ties with Xi - Li Zhanshu and Xu Qiliang. As director of the Central Committee General Office, Li is Xi's chief of staff. Xu is a military official seen as unlikely to be promoted to the Politburo Standing Committee. "Xi will not have enough time to build up a distinct faction," Lam said. "He will have to spend a lot of time building consensus within the top leadership because he doesn't have a distinct faction of his own. So there will be a lot of give and take. "Politically, I think things will remain frozen as it's difficult to get a consensus for political reform," Lam said.
Copyright © 2013 Reuters | ||
| Netanyahu says Iran using nuclear talks to "buy time" for bomb Posted: 03 Mar 2013 03:55 PM PST JERUSALEM (Reuters) - Renewed international efforts to negotiate curbs on Iran's disputed nuclear programme have backfired by giving it more time to work on building a bomb, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Sunday.
His remarks on the inconclusive February 26-27 meeting between Iran and six world powers signalled impatience by Israel, which has threatened to launch pre-emptive war on its arch-foe, possibly in the coming months, if it deems diplomacy a dead end. Senior U.S. diplomat Wendy Sherman flew in to brief Israel about the Kazakh-hosted talks, in which Tehran, which denies seeking nuclear arms, was offered modest relief from sanctions in return for halting mid-level uranium enrichment. There was no breakthrough. The sides will reconvene in Almaty on April 5-6 after holding technical talks in Istanbul. "My impression from these talks is that the only thing that is gained from them is a buying of time, and through this time-buying Iran intends to continue enriching nuclear material for an atomic bomb and is indeed getting closer to this goal," Netanyahu told his Cabinet in remarks aired by Israeli media. Extrapolating from U.N. reports on Iran's enrichment of uranium to 20 percent fissile purity, a short technical step from weapons-grade, Netanyahu has set a mid-2013 "red line" for denying the Islamic republic the fuel needed for a first bomb. Iranian media reported on Sunday the country was building around 3,000 new advanced enrichment centrifuges, a development that could accelerate the nuclear project. The prospect of unilateral Israeli strikes, and the likely wide-ranging reprisals by Iran and its regional allies, worries Washington, which wants to pursue diplomacy as it winds down costly military commitments abroad. OBAMA VISIT LOOMS In an attempt to make their proposals more palatable to Tehran, the United States and five other world powers appeared to have softened previous demands in Almaty - for example regarding their requirement that the Iranians ship out their stockpile of the higher-grade uranium. A senior Israeli official said that while the Netanyahu government had hoped for a tougher line by the so-called P5+1, it was resigned to awaiting the results of this round of talks. "At the end of the day, what matters is that the Iranians end their enrichment, whether it's through shutting down their facilities or through more nuanced technical safeguards," the official, speaking on condition of anonymity, told Reuters. The official would not comment on how or if the latest diplomacy had affected the readiness of Israel, which is widely assumed to have the region's only nuclear arsenal, to go to war. Iran may have warded off that threat by turning some of its 20 percent-pure uranium into fuel rods for a research reactor. The international standoff and shifting timelines are expected to dominate U.S. President Barack Obama's trip to Israel later this month. The Israelis urge a tougher posture on Iran from their ally, which has a hefty military presence in the Gulf and says it is poised to use force as a last resort. Israeli Defence Minister Ehud Barak, in a speech in Washington to the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, echoed Netanyahu in voicing doubt that diplomacy would stop Iran's nuclear ambitions. "Therefore, all options must remain on the table," he told the pro-Israel lobby group. "We expect all those who say it to mean it. We mean it." Israel's dovish president, Shimon Peres, sounded more upbeat after meeting Sherman last Thursday. Peres said he had "total faith in the Obama administration, in its commitment and its actions in preventing Iran from developing nuclear weapons". Obama's Israel visit has been overshadowed by local politics too, given the rightist Netanyahu's failure so far to build a new coalition government after he narrowly won a January 22 ballot. Appealing to potential party allies to rally to him in the name of national security, Netanyahu told his cabinet: "To my regret this is not happening, and in the coming days I will continue my efforts to unify and galvanise forces ahead of the major national and international challenges that we face." Copyright © 2013 Reuters | ||
| Opposition leader visits Syria amid Assad offensive Posted: 03 Mar 2013 03:49 PM PST AMMAN (Reuters) - Exiled opposition figure Moaz Alkhatib visited Syria on Sunday for the first time since fleeing last year, as rebels said President Bashar al-Assad's forces embarked on counter-offensives in various parts of the country.
In the central city of Homs, heavy fighting broke out between loyalist forces and opposition brigades dug in in preparation for an onslaught, opposition sources said. Opposition campaigners said the counter-offensive appeared to be part of a new strategy by Assad focusing on regaining three rebel-held regions that pose a threat to his grip on Damascus and supply lines from coastal regions, where a large proportion of his minority Alawite sect live. "We are probably seeing the first stage of a major onslaught on Homs," said Mohammad Mroueh, a member of an opposition 'crisis committee'. Alkhatib, president of the Syrian National Coalition, a group of anti-Assad interests that has sought international recognition, crossed into northern Syria from neighbouring Turkey and toured the towns of Jarablus and Minbij. Alkhatib, a 52-year-old former preacher at the Umayyad Mosque in Damascus, was chosen in November to head the SNC and his visit appeared aimed at overcoming scepticism among some of the disparate rebel forces towards his Cairo-based Coalition. He has said he is ready for talks with representatives of Assad's government to seek a political solution to a conflict which erupted nearly two years ago and has descended into a civil war in which around 70,000 people have been killed. The SNC says any talks must focus on Assad's departure while rebel leaders insist he depart before talks can start. Before entering Syria, Alkhatib attended a meeting of 220 rebel commanders and opposition campaigners in the Turkish city of Gaziantep to elect an administration for Aleppo province, home to 6 million people. PATRIOTIC Assad, in an interview with British newspaper The Sunday Times, said his government was prepared to talk to fighters who lay down their weapons but insisted he would not leave the country or step aside under foreign pressure. "We are ready to negotiate with anyone, including militants who surrender their arms," he said according to a transcript released by state media. However there would be no talks with "terrorists who are determined to carry weapons." But Assad, who inherited power from his father in 2000, said he was not going anywhere. "No patriotic person will think about living outside his country. I am like any other patriotic Syrian," he told the newspaper. In Aleppo, home to one of Syria's two oil refineries and on a road linking coastal army supply bases to Damascus, rebels were fighting off an incursion by a pro-Assad militia known as shabbiha, opposition sources said. They said opposition fighters captured a police academy on the outskirt of Aleppo, after days of fighting in which rebels killed 150 soldiers, while sustaining heavy casualties. Further east, Iraqi military sources said Iraq shut a border crossing with Syria after rebels seized the Syrian side of the frontier post close to the Syrian town of Yaarabiya. "Iraqi authorities were ordered to shut off Rabia border crossing until further notice because of the Syrian government's lack of control over the other side of the post," police said. In Amman, Jordan's national carrier Royal Jordanian said it had stopped flying over Syrian air space for security reasons. The airline stopped its regular flights to Damascus last year along with some other carriers. (Editing by Robin Pomeroy) Copyright © 2013 Reuters |
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