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Egyptians set to give Islamists biggest bloc in vote

Posted: 14 Dec 2011 06:32 PM PST

CAIRO (Reuters) - Egyptians return to polling stations on Thursday in a phased election likely to give Islamists the biggest bloc in a parliament that will play a key role in drafting a new constitution after decades of autocratic rule.

A man casts his vote at a polling station during the second day of parliamentary elections in Giza, on the outskirts of Cairo December 14, 2011. REUTERS/Mohamed Abd El-Ghany

The vote being staged over six weeks is Egypt's first free polls after a series of rigged elections under Hosni Mubarak, who after almost 30 years in power was driven from office by a popular uprising in February.

The army, which took over after Mubarak was ousted, remains in charge until a presidential election in mid-2012, but parliament will have a popular mandate that the military will find difficult to ignore as it oversees the transition.

The ruling army council fuelled suspicions it wanted to hang on to power, even after a new president was elected, when its cabinet proposed inserting articles in the new constitution that would have shielded it from civilian scrutiny.

Parliament's prime job will be appointing a 100-strong assembly to write a new constitution which will define the president's powers and parliament's clout in the new Egypt.

For ordinary Egyptians, the novelty is voting in an election where the outcome is not a foregone conclusion before even one vote is cast. Under Mubarak, his National Democratic Party (NDP) swept to routine victories in votes littered with abuses.

"It is the first time for me to know what an election is ... I can choose the person that I want to represent me. The NDP used to control the country. Now our views will steer the parliament," said 24-year-old Nesma Medhat, who was voting in a district of Cairo for the liberal Egyptian Bloc alliance.

Independent monitoring groups reported violations to voting rules, just as in the first round, including campaigning outside the polling stations. The army, which has sent troops to guard polling stations, said it would confront such practices.

An election committee has pledged to clamp down on abuses but says irregularities were not widespread enough to discredit the result. Official results are not expected until Saturday or Sunday but parties will give an indication of their performance before that since they have representatives watching the count.

TREND SEEN CONTINUING

Islamist-led party lists secured about two-thirds of votes in the first round of the election. However, the Islamists are a broad and divided camp, which analysts say gives liberals a chance to make their voices heard in the new assembly.

The biggest single bloc went to the alliance led by the Muslim Brotherhood's Freedom and Justice Party that won about 37 percent of the vote, with the hardline Salafi al-Nour Party listing coming a surprise second with 24 percent.

The liberal Egyptian Bloc and another liberal party, Wafd, together secured about 20 percent of votes for their lists.

The liberal camp has sought to revitalise its campaigning to draw out more support, although analysts do not expect any major changes to the overall trend in voting in the second round when once again turnout appeared to be high.

Long queues extended outside polling stations on Wednesday, the first day of the two days given to voting in each round.

"Voters casting their ballots in the second round will have been influenced by the results of voting in the first round of the election, but the order established in the first round will not change," said Karin Maree, analyst for Egypt at the London-based Economist Intelligence Unit.

But she said the Salafi al-Nour could lose a little ground and Egyptian Bloc's "share of seats is likely to grow slightly as voters seek to limit the influence of Islamist parties."

In the Minufiya district north of Cairo in the Nile Delta, one area where voting is taking place in this round, 32-year-old Zeinab Youssef said she was backing the Brotherhood's party.

"I'm voting for an old, established party that will know how to write a constitution. The Brotherhood suffered a lot of injustice," she said, referring to the decades when the Brotherhood was banned under Mubarak.

Voting for each stage is held on two days. This time voting was on Wednesday and Thursday in parts of Cairo not covered last time round, Ismailiya and Suez to the east of the capital, Aswan and Sohag to the south, and Nile Delta regions in the north.

(Additional reporting by Shaimaa Fayed; Writing by Edmund Blair; Editing by Mark Heinrich)

Copyright © 2011 Reuters

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Court to decide on South Africa political mining case

Posted: 14 Dec 2011 04:07 PM PST

JOHANNESBURG (Reuters) - A South African court will decide on Thursday whether or not a small but politically connected company with no mining experience can keep a prospecting right it was awarded.

But the stakes are far bigger than one dispute, as the case has rattled investor confidence in Africa's largest economy and could have multi-billion rand consequences for Kumba Iron Ore and Arcelormittal South Africa.

Kumba, a unit of global miner Anglo American, has challenged the state's award of a prospecting right over a 21.4 percent stake in Kumba's Sishen mine to little-known Imperial Crown Trading (ICT).

The granting of that right by South Africa's department of mineral resources raised concerns about political favoritism and cronyism, as one of ICT's owners is a business partner of President Jacob Zuma's son Duduzane, and the company has no real mining experience.

Thursday's ruling will be the latest twist in a long and complex saga, ending with a decision whether ICT should keep the right. Few think it will.

"I would be very surprised if the court granted ICT the right, because the circumstances under which the right was granted were so extraordinary," said Peter Leon, a mining expert at Johannesburg law firm Webber Wentzel.

"In this particular case, the regional manager in the department and other officials had recommended against the grant, and the deputy director general at the time approved it."

If the judge says ICT can keep the prospecting right, that will probably allow it to apply for the mining right.

If, as expected, the judge rules that ICT should not have been granted the right in the first place, he may set it aside but say that only Kumba can apply for the mining right.

Thursday's court drama will also have profound implications for steelmaker Arcelormittal's South Africa unit, as it allowed the right in question to lapse in 2009. This was subsequently granted to ICT.

Arcelormittal is welded to the case because a preferential supply agreement with Sishen that enabled it to buy iron ore at below market prices was tied to the right, and Kumba says that has now lapsed.

This is being hashed out in a separate arbitration process, but Thursday's ruling could ultimately have a bearing on this, and the stakes are huge for both companies, as the preferential iron ore supply deal is worth billions of rand a year.

(Editing by Marius Bosch and Will Waterman)

Copyright © 2011 Reuters

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Doubts, fears nag Iraqis as U.S. pulls out

Posted: 14 Dec 2011 03:54 PM PST

BAGHDAD (Reuters) - Zahora Jasim lost two brothers to bombs and gunmen in the years of turmoil and violence that followed the U.S. invasion of Iraq.

A man carries dry cleaning past blast walls that protect the dining facility inside the compound of the U.S. embassy in Baghdad December 14, 2011. REUTERS/Lucas Jackson

Now, as the troops leave for home, the Baghdad housewife fears her country's troubles are not over and wonders, like many Iraqis, if their fragile democracy will slide back into sectarian strife.

"The only images I have in my mind from these nine years are the deaths of my brother and his wife, of being forced from our homes, and the death of another brother in a bombing," she said.

"I don't think anything will really change. There will still be bombings, we will still have assassinations, and the government will not be able to do anything."

The U.S. military departure evokes mixed emotions. Some feel gratitude to the Americans for overthrowing dictator Saddam Hussein in the 2003 invasion. For others, a sense of sovereignty is tainted by sadness over lost relatives and memories of U.S. violations like the abuse of inmates in Abu Ghraib prison.

The last U.S. troops are rolling out of the country across the Kuwaiti border as President Barack Obama winds up the most unpopular war since Vietnam.

But Iraq remains uncertain in many ways. A power-sharing deal includes Sunni, Shi'ite and Kurdish parties, but the government struggles with sectarian tensions. Violence is down sharply but bombings and attacks remain part of daily life.

From the Shi'ite-dominated south to western Sunni strongholds, sectarianism bubbles just below the surface, and many are unsure their security forces can contain al Qaeda-linked insurgents and rival militias without U.S. help.

Bombings and attacks have eased since American and Iraqi security forces weakened insurgents. But roadside bombs, car bombs and assassinations still kill and maim almost every day.

A frail economy, constant power shortages, scarce jobs and discontent with political leaders all fuel uncertainty among Iraqis.

"Thanks to the Americans. They took us away from Saddam Hussein, I have to say that. But I think now we are going to be in trouble," Malik Abed, 44, a vendor at a Baghdad fish market. "Maybe the terrorists will start attacking us again."

SECTARIAN WORRIES

With the fall of a Sunni dictator, Iraq's Shi'ite majority has risen and a fragile power-sharing government is led by Shi'ite Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki. But for some Sunnis, there is no sharing.

"I think sectarianism will return, the struggle between Sunni and Shi'ite. It is clear from the struggle the government has," said security guard Mohammed Ibrahim. "I feel marginalized as a Sunni, there are no jobs for us in the government."

Falluja, the site of bloody urban fighting during the height of the war, has a distinct view of the American presence, with many questioning the massive U.S. military operations there.

Sitting in the Sunni heartland, Falluja was once the heart of al Qaeda operations in Iraq. U.S. troops used overwhelming troop force, gunships and jets to crush the insurgency there. Many still seek compensation.

A group of Falluja residents burned and stamped on U.S. flags on Wednesday in celebration over the withdrawal. Others waved pictures of dead relatives.

"No one trusted their promises, but they said when they came to Iraq they would bring security, stability and would build our country. Now they are walking out, leaving behind killings, ruin and mess," said Ahmed Aied, a Falluja grocer.

Even as their country shakes off the worst of its violence, memories of war leave old and young alike fretting over peace and stability.

"I was just a young girl when the Americans came. I used to walk with the U.S. soldiers and take pictures with them and they talked with me. They gave me pencils, and school books," said Roua Mansour, a young mother in Baghdad

"Now I am always scared. I prefer to stay inside at home. There was once a big bomb at the Sheraton Hotel and since then I have been frightened. A mortar landed in our garden once. I hope it gets better, but security still worries me."

(Additional reporting by Aref Mohammed and; Fadhel al-Badrani; Editing by Mark Trevelyan)

Copyright © 2011 Reuters

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