Ahad, 4 Disember 2011

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West's Afghan resolve tested by economy, crises

Posted: 04 Dec 2011 08:03 PM PST

BONN (Reuters) - The West wants to use an Afghanistan meeting on Monday to signal enduring support for Kabul as allied troops head home, but economic turmoil in Europe and crises with Pakistan and Iran may prompt doubts about Western resolve.

Afghan President Hamid Karzai (L) is welcomed by German Foreign Minister Guido Westerwelle at the Cologne/Bonn military airport December 2, 2011. REUTERS/Ina Fassbender

The goal of Afghanistan's international partners is to leave behind a government strong enough to escape the fate of its Soviet-era predecessor, which collapsed in 1992 in a civil war, and whose president was eventually captured and executed by the Taliban when they overran Kabul in 1996.

Hosts Germany sought to signal Western staying power on the eve of the gathering of dozens of foreign ministers in the German city of Bonn, promising it will continue to give support even after most foreign combat troops leave in 2014.

"We must not repeat the mistakes of history," German Foreign Minister Guido Westerwelle told delegates.

"This will not be the end of the international presence in Afghanistan. We will not forget Afghanistan after 2014. Our engagement will last."

Ten years after a similar conference held to rebuild Afghanistan following the West's 2001 invasion after the September 11 attacks, there is no shortage of worries on the horizon, in particular about the Afghan government's ability to provide security for its own people.

But addressing matters such as how to share out the funding of the still-fledgling Afghan police and army, and whether or not to pursue apparently stillborn peace efforts with the Taliban, may have to compete for attention with brewing confrontations pitting Washington against Pakistan and Iran, two of Afghanistan's most influential neighbours.

A RETURN TO CIVIL WAR?

Pakistan, an insecure but powerful neighbour and perhaps the single most critical player in efforts to end Afghan violence, is boycotting the meeting after NATO aircraft killed 24 of its soldiers in a weekend attack the alliance called a "tragic ... accident".

Many in the West hope Pakistan will use its influence to deliver the Afghan Taliban, whose leadership Washington says is based in Pakistan, to peace talks.

Many worry that an array of militants, in the absence of enough foreign troops and an adequate improvement in local security forces, will plunge Afghanistan back into civil war. Renewed strife might also stir more violence over the border in Pakistan, embroiled in its own anti-government Islamist insurgency.

"There is potentially a perfect storm of problems lying ahead for Afghanistan," said Sajjan Gohel, international security director at the Asia Pacific Foundation think tank in London.

"Afghanistan's security is intrinsically tied to Pakistan. If the problems inside Pakistan worsen that will have a detrimental impact on Afghanistan. The continuing freefall in relations between the U.S. and Pakistan makes the situation even more precarious.

"If relations between the West and Iran also worsen that may be utilised by the clerical regime (in Tehran) to cause problems in Afghanistan."

A U.S. official who travelled to Bonn with U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton tried to play down Pakistan's absence.

"I certainly hope that we are not entering a phase with them where they play some sort of spoiler role," the official, speaking on condition of anonymity, told reporters on Clinton's plane. "We are not proceeding with that assumption at all."

One bright spot at the conference may be the resumption of aid flowing into a World Bank trust fund for Afghanistan.

The United States and other donors stopped paying in to the trust fund when the International Monetary Fund suspended its programme with Kabul in June, but the IMF's decision to reverse course last month may pave the way to replenish the trust.

TALIBAN DECRIES "FLAMES OF OCCUPATION"

Iran moved nearer centre stage in Bonn after Tehran said it shot down a U.S. spy drone in its airspace and threatened to respond outside of its borders to the alleged incursion.

International forces in Kabul said the drone may have been one lost last week while flying over western Afghanistan.

Iranian television quoted a military source as saying Tehran had shot down the drone in eastern Iran.

"The Iranian military's response to the American spy drone's violation of our airspace will not be limited to Iran's borders," the military source said, without elaborating.

Iran has been accused in the past of providing low-level backing to the Taliban insurgency, and diplomats and analysts have suggested Tehran could ratchet up this support if it wanted to put serious pressure on U.S. forces in Afghanistan.

For their part the Taliban, in a November 30 statement, reiterated a demand for an end to what it called foreign occupation of the country.

The conference was "seeking to further ensnare Afghanistan into the flames of occupation and to turn it into a battleground and perpetual nightmare for the neighbouring countries".

(Writing by William Maclean; Editing by Myra MacDonald)

Copyright © 2011 Reuters

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Peru declares emergency to stop protest over mine

Posted: 04 Dec 2011 07:54 PM PST

LIMA (Reuters) - Peruvian President Ollanta Humala declared a state of emergency late on Sunday to quell protests against Newmont Mining's $4.8 billion Conga mine project that have hobbled the region of Cajamarca for 11 days.

Andean people protest against Newmont Mining's Conga gold project during a march near the Cortada lagoon at Peru's region of Cajamarca, November 24, 2011. REUTERS/Enrique Castro-Mendivil

Humala, in a nationwide address, called leaders of the environmental protest intransigent and said the ruling would give security forces added power to ensure that roads, schools and hospitals could reopen after having been shuttered for days by rallies and marches against the proposed mine.

It was the first time in Humala's young presidency that he has used extraordinary powers to defuse a social conflict over mining in Peru, where some 200 disputes nationwide threaten to delay billions of dollars in planned mining and oil projects.

"Every possible means has been exhausted to establish dialogue and resolve the conflict democratically, but the intransigence of local and regional leaders has been exposed - not even the most basic agreements could be reached to ensure social peace and the reestablishment of public services," he said.

Humala campaigned on promises to steer more social spending to rural towns to help calm social conflicts over natural resources while assuring companies they could move ahead with new mining and oil projects.

He has urged mediation to solve the disputes, but nearly a week ago the government was forced to ask Newmont to temporarily halt work on the Conga mine after the protests turned violent. Since then protesters have continued to march and demanded the government permanently cancel the project.

Prime Minister Salomon Lerner negotiated on Sunday for hours with leaders of the protest, who say the mine will hurt water supplies and caused pollution.

But Lerner failed to reach an accord with protesters, prompting Humala to invoke a state of emergency - a tool that his predecessor, former President Alan Garcia, frequently used to quash social protests.

(Reporting by Teresa Cespedes and Terry Wade; editing by Philip Barbara)

Copyright © 2011 Reuters

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Indonesia's Gamalama volcano erupts, thousands flee

Posted: 04 Dec 2011 07:48 PM PST

JAKARTA (Reuters) - Mount Gamalama erupted to spew lava and ash on Ternate in eastern Indonesia, prompting thousands of residents to flee the volcano on one of the former Spice Islands.

There were no immediate reports of casualties after the 1,715-metre-high (5,650-foot) volcano first erupted late on Sunday.

Residents grabbed warm clothing before fleeing their houses, with many taking refuge at the local governor's house.

"We advised residents to use masks and the local authority to close the airport until everything is normalized," said Surono, head of Indonesia's Centre of Vulcanology and Geological Disaster Mitigation.

He said many residents were returning to their homes, although authorities were keeping the volcano at the second highest level of alert, he said.

The Sultan Babullah airport in the provincial capital of Ternate shut Monday, said Pujobroto, corporate secretary at PT Garuda Indonesia, which flies twice a day to the city in the Molucca chain of islands.

The volcano has clove groves on its foothills, one of the spices that led the Portuguese and Dutch to settle there several centuries ago, and Ternate city is the business centre for an island group now becoming known for nickel mining.

Indonesia, the world's fourth most populous country, is on the Pacific "Ring of Fire" and is frequently prone to natural disasters such as earthquakes, volcanoes, tsunamis and floods.

(Reporting by Jakarta Bureau; Editing by Neil Chatterjee and Ron Popeski)

Copyright © 2011 Reuters

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