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ANALYSIS - Palin boosts US political influence, buffers brand

Posted: 13 Aug 2011 08:40 PM PDT

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Sarah Palin may not be officially seeking the Republican nomination for president, but she is making sure she stays within the party's public eye.

Former Governor of Alaska Sarah Palin greets people during a visit to the Iowa State Fair in Des Moines, Iowa, August 12, 2011. (REUTERS/Jim Young/Files)

Whether visiting the Iowa State Fair the day before the closely watched Iowa "straw poll" or roaring into Washington at a motorcycle rally to honour veterans, Palin has orchestrated her appearances in the focus of the Republican faithful.

Her political fund-raising has lagged, but polls show the former vice presidential nominee has retained a strong core of support as she flirts with entering the presidential race -- and makes millions from books and television.

"She desperately wants to remain a national figure, who can engage on issues, who can have a real impact," said Republican strategist Matt Mackowiak, adding that Palin sees her role partly as someone who keeps party rivals honest.

Although she has not thrown her hat into the ring, Palin is third in the Republican nomination fight, according to polls compiled by Real Clear Politics, behind front-runner Mitt Romney and Texas Governor Rick Perry, and narrowly ahead of U.S. Representative Michele Bachmann.

If she did enter, Palin would be the best-known Republican in the field, and one spared months of intra-party fighting, media scrutiny and expensive campaigning.

"Like every other Republican who potentially will run, she's keeping her name out there, keeping her brand name but generally staying out of the debate, to avoid making any mistakes," said Princeton University professor Julian Zelizer.

"At a minimum, she keeps the Palin brand name going for other reasons," he said.

The former Republican vice presidential nominee made a surprise stop at the Iowa State Fair in Des Moines on Friday -- scheduled neatly between a debate between declared Republican contenders and Saturday's Ames straw poll, an unofficial test of campaign strength.

"She's still contemplating whether or not she's going to run," said Ford O'Connell, who was an advisor on the McCain-Palin campaign in 2008. "Her appearance in Iowa, which is the center of the political universe, shows that she is politically relevant."

It was Palin's second high-profile trip of the summer to Iowa, which will hold the first contest of the Republican race for the nomination to oppose Democratic President Barack Obama's 2012 re-election bid. She is also due to speak to a Tea Party movement rally in Iowa early next month.

SEPTEMBER DEADLINE?

"I think there is plenty of time to jump in the race," Palin said at the fair on Friday. "Watching the whole process over the last year certainly shows me that, yes, there is plenty of room for more people."

September would probably be her decision deadline. "I don't want to be perceived as stringing people along," she said.

Since John McCain made her his surprise vice presidential selection in 2008, Palin has made millions. She has become a contributor on Fox News Channel, written best-selling books and starred in a reality television show.

Palin also enhanced her political influence during the 2010 midterm election season by campaigning for candidates in congressional and state elections backed by the Tea Party grass-roots conservative movement.

Fuelling speculation about her plans, the former Alaska governor reportedly bought a house in Arizona where she could base a campaign and has travelled overseas to boost her foreign policy credentials. On Memorial Day, she roared into Washington on a motorcycle and then embarked on her "One Nation" bus tour to historic sites along the East Coast.

However, Palin has slipped in one area essential to any political candidate -- the money race.

Palin's primary fund-raising committee, SarahPAC, raised a paltry $1.6 million in the first half of 2011, far below the amount needed to fund a campaign staff and travel the country.

Romney, the Republican money leader, raised more than $18 million in the second quarter alone.

Palin's appeal has also been usurped by Bachmann, a Tea Party movement leader who appeals to many of the same anti-Washington voters. Perry is also popular with Tea Party movement backers.

Palin's Iowa visit was not the first time this summer that her travels have stolen the limelight from declared Republican candidates. In June, Palin's went to New Hampshire on the day Romney launched his presidential campaign.

And she was in Iowa for the premiere of her documentary "The Undefeated" as Obama visited the state on June 28, the day after Bachmann announced there that she would run.

"She enjoys, in a way, big-timing the announced candidates. She enjoys going into markets where people are doing things and making them see that she's a bigger political figure," Mackowiak said.

(Additional reporting by John Whitesides in Des Moines; Editing by Kristin Roberts and Vicki Allen)

Copyright © 2011 Reuters

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Bachmann wins Iowa Republican poll, Perry jumps in

Posted: 13 Aug 2011 08:40 PM PDT

AMES, Iowa (Reuters) - Michele Bachmann won the Iowa straw poll on Saturday in the first big test of the 2012 Republican presidential campaign, as Texas Governor Rick Perry launched a White House bid that could reshape the race.

U.S. Republican presidential candidate and Minnesota Congresswoman Michele Bachmann greets supporters after her victory in the Iowa straw poll in Ames, Iowa August 13, 2011. (REUTERS/Daniel Acker)

Bachmann, a U.S. representative from Minnesota, narrowly edged out Ron Paul and rolled over the rest of the field to capture the nonbinding mock election, an early gauge of strength in the state that holds the first 2012 Republican nominating contest.

Tim Pawlenty, a former Minnesota governor, finished a distant third, dealing a setback to his struggling campaign.

"This is the very first step toward taking the White House in 2012," Bachmann told a small crowd of supporters outside her campaign bus on the straw poll grounds. "Now it's on to all 50 states."

In South Carolina, Perry formally jumped into the race with a blistering attack on President Barack Obama.

"We cannot afford four more years of this rudderless leadership," Perry told a conference of conservatives, promising to reduce taxes, regulations and government intrusion in people's lives.

The straw poll and Perry's campaign launch, coming less than six months before Iowa's nominating contest, promised to reshuffle the Republican field fighting for the nomination to challenge Obama, a Democrat, in 2012.

Perry, a staunch social conservative with a strong job creation record in Texas, is expected to immediately vault into the top tier of contenders along with front-runner Mitt Romney. Perry visits Iowa on Sunday.

In the straw poll, Bachmann won with 29 percent of the vote. Paul, a U.S. representative from Texas, was a close second with 28 percent and Pawlenty had 14 percent.

Bachmann's win adds to her recent momentum and cements her standing in the top tier of contenders. She had shot to the top of opinion polls in Iowa this summer with the support of social conservatives and the fiscal conservative Tea Party movement.

QUESTIONS FOR PAWLENTY

Pawlenty's showing raised questions about his ability to continue in the race after spending $1 million in Iowa. He has been mired in the low single digits in polls in the state and nationally.

"We made progress in moving from the back of the pack into a competitive position for the caucuses, but we have a lot more work to do," Pawlenty said in a statement. "We are just beginning and I'm looking forward to a great campaign."

Perry finished sixth with 3.6 percent of the vote even though he was not on the ballot. That was more than Romney, the former Massachusetts governor who was on the ballot but did not participate in the poll. He finished seventh.

Six Republicans had paid to erect tents and speak at the event, pleading for support from voters who rolled into the site in dozens of buses and jammed candidate tents for music and free barbecue.

Lines were long at the tents hosted by Bachmann and Pawlenty, who competed for the votes of the social conservatives who dominate the Iowa nominating contest. The supporters of Paul, a libertarian with a loyal following, swarmed the grounds and jammed the arena when he spoke.

The 16,892 votes was the second biggest straw poll turnout behind the nearly 24,000 cast in 1999, when then-Governor George W. Bush of Texas won on his way to the White House.

Clara Bulens of Grinnell, Iowa, said she travelled to the poll to vote for Bachmann because "she's beautiful, brilliant, very personable and I love her platform".

The poll, a fund-raiser for the state party, created a carnival atmosphere around Iowa State University's basketball arena in Ames. Any Iowa resident over 18 could show up and participate, with many allowing a candidate to buy their $30 ticket.

The poll has a record of winnowing the poor performers from the field, but a straw poll victory is not always a harbinger of later success. Romney won in 2007 but lost the Iowa caucuses to Mike Huckabee, who was a surprise second-place winner in the straw poll.

Bush's father lost in 1987 before winning the presidency and Bob Dole tied in 1995 before capturing the Republican nomination the next year.

Finishing fourth on Saturday was former U.S. Senator Rick Santorum, with businessman Herman Cain in fifth ahead of Perry.

(Editing by Will Dunham, Vicki Allen and Paul Simao)

Copyright © 2011 Reuters

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Palin stokes 2012 speculation with Iowa appearance

Posted: 13 Aug 2011 01:01 PM PDT

DES MOINES, Iowa (Reuters) - Republican Sarah Palin rolled into Iowa's state fair on Friday, stealing the spotlight from the party's presidential contenders and sparking a new round of speculation about her plans for 2012.

Former Governor of Alaska Sarah Palin and her husband Todd visit the Iowa State Fair in Des Moines, Iowa, August 12, 2011. (REUTERS/Jim Young)

Palin's visit to the cattle barn at the fair attracted a wild crush of photographers, reporters, fans and onlookers who swarmed the former Alaska governor, alarming the cows and bringing activity in the barn to a halt.

The timing of the visit, a day before a straw poll that is a big early test of campaign strength for the 2012 Republican presidential contenders, renewed questions about whether she will jump in the race.

Palin, who stopped to talk to reporters and fans outside the barn, said she was still uncertain of her decision but there was time and room for more candidates to run.

"I think there is plenty of time to jump in the race," she said. "Watching the whole process over the last year certainly shows me that, yes, there is plenty of room for more people."

She said that "practically speaking" September would probably be a deadline for her decision. "I don't want to be perceived as stringing people along," she said.

Palin joined a half-dozen declared Republican presidential candidates who visited the fair on Friday to speak at a local newspaper's stage, make a traditional visit to a life-size sculpted butter cow and eat fried Oreo cookies or meats on a stick.

The fair visit is a traditional rite of passage for presidential contenders, and Palin's timing on Friday stole the spotlight from potential rivals, including former Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty and U.S. Representative Michele Bachmann.

Palin, the 2008 vice presidential nominee, denied that was her intention. "I don't think I'm stealing any spotlights," she said. "We're very thankful to have been invited by friends and I'm glad we could make it."

Talk about Palin's entry in the race had slowed after she ended a bus tour of several states in early June. As the 2012 race heated up, speculation focused on other new entries, like Texas Governor Rick Perry who is expected to declare his candidacy on Saturday.

Dressed in black jeans and a white t-shirt with a cartoon stick figure woman and hearts on the front, Palin posed for photos with fans, signed autographs and petted a calf that was led to her through the media mob.

She dismissed suggestions that if she gets into the race she is on a collision course with Bachmann, another outspoken and flashy conservative woman who is popular with members of the Tea Party movement and attracts heavy media attention.

"That's so passe to say that just because there may happen to be two women in the race that they would, you know, get in the mud and engage in some catfighting," said Palin, who was accompanied by her husband Todd.

"That's ridiculous, it's even a sexist notion that two women would duke it out. If I'm going to duke it out I'm going to duke it out with guys," she said.

She said Thursday night's debate involving declared Republican candidates in Iowa was "great" and she welcomed the entry of Perry into the race but said it would have no bearing on her final decision.

"It adds to the debate, it adds another voice for Americans to consider," she said.

Copyright © 2011 Reuters

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